Result
4:1
09/01/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.66 | 1.30 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 23.53% (4/17) | 8.33% (1/12) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 91.67% (11/12) | 76.47% (13/17) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 50% (2/4) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 50% (2/4) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 28 | 23 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 54.9 | 45.1 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 11:18, Bjork M. (2 min),
- 15:57, (2 min),
- 2nd Period (2 - 0)
- 08:20, Jandric S. (2 min),
- 12:08, Hamalainen L. (2 min),
- 14:18, 1 - 0, Hamalainen L. (G), Westerholm Pa. (A),
- 15:39, Raty Aku (2 min),
- 16:04, 2 - 0, Stenqvist J. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
- 3rd Period (2 - 1)
- 09:32, 3 - 0, Westerholm Pa. (G), Saarela A. (A),
- 10:14, Tichacek J. (2 min),
- 11:33, 4 - 0, Viitasalo N. (G), Morand A. (A), Jandric S. (A2)
- 15:00, 4 - 1, Heikkala V. (G), Ojantakanen K. (A), Juusola V. (A2)
Chances of winning
Lukko
62.4% | Draw
19.2% | Kärpät
18.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Lukko - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.5 ↓
(1.72) |
4.81 ↑
(4.59) |
5.09 ↑
(3.87) |
6.9%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.75
What is the prediction for Lukko - Kärpät?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Lukko (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Lukko will win
(7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:1.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 4.
- Lukko is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Kärpät is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lukko may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Lukko is seen as the favorite.
- We predict that Lukko will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 68:45. (average 3.4:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 33:19. (average 3.7:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Kärpät?
Lukko has won 11 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Lukko?
Kärpät has won 3 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lukko - Kärpät were as follows:
10.12.2025
Lukko
-
Kärpät
5:2
24.09.2025
Kärpät
-
Lukko
5:7
28.02.2025
Lukko
-
Kärpät
2:1
14.12.2024
Kärpät
-
Lukko
5:4
20.11.2024
Kärpät
-
Lukko
3:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 37 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 134:86 | 75 |
| 2 | Lukko | 37 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 116:91 | 69 |
| 3 | JYP | 35 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 129:105 | 66 |
| 4 | KooKoo | 37 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 131:98 | 66 |
| 5 | SaiPa | 38 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 126:106 | 65 |
| 6 | Ilves | 37 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 114:99 | 63 |
| 7 | Assat | 37 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 108:95 | 62 |
| 8 | KalPa | 36 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 111:117 | 59 |
| 9 | TPS Turku | 38 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 90:103 | 51 |
| 10 | IFK Helsinki | 37 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 84:115 | 50 |
| 11 | Kiekko-Espoo | 38 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 97:113 | 50 |
| 12 | Jukurit | 36 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 82:96 | 46 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 35 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 69:88 | 45 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 39 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 93:113 | 45 |
| 15 | Karpat | 38 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 116:128 | 42 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 37 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 76:123 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
