Real Madrid vs Valencia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Spanish LaLiga
Soccer Spanish LaLiga Real Madrid - Valencia
Result
1:2
05/04/2025 at 10:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : LaLiga - Round 30
  • Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)
Real Madrid - Valencia - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.700.81
Ball Possession
65%35%
Total shots
2110
Shots on target
92
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
94
Passes
91% (564/621)77% (260/338)
Yellow Cards
03
Expected Goals (xG)
3.700.81
xG on target (xGOT)
3.280.59
Total shots
2110
Shots on target
92
Shots off target
85
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
157
Shots outside the Box
63
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
02
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
94
Touches in opposition box
4616
Offsides
61
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
91% (564/621)77% (260/338)
Long passes
78% (36/46)45% (27/60)
Passes in final third
86% (190/221)69% (69/100)
Crosses
23% (6/26)71% (5/7)
Expected assists (xA)
2.710.96
Fouls
1013
Tackles
59% (13/22)72% (13/18)
Duels won
6147
Clearances Total
731
Interceptions
1310
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
08
xGOT faced
0.593.28
Goals prevented
-1.412.28

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 10', Tarrega C. 🟨,
  • 13', Vinicius Junior (Pen),
  • 15', 0 - 1, Diakhaby M. ⚽, Almeida A. (A),
  • 22', Ancelotti C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Sadiq U. 🟨,
  • 50', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
  • 57', Diaz B. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
  • 59', Sadiq U. ↓, Mir R. ↑,
  • 74', Guerra J. ↓, Pepelu ↑,
  • 74', Almeida A. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
  • 74', Aarons M. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
  • 77', Modric L. ↓, Endrick ↑,
  • 77', Vinicius Junior ↓, Alaba D. ↑,
  • 77', Garcia F. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
  • 85', Lucas ↓, Guler A. ↑,
  • 90+4', Barrenechea E. ↓, Guillamon H. ↑,
  • 90+5', 1 - 2, Duro H. ⚽, Mir R. (A),
  • 90+8', Aarons M. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/bddjdjwp

Chances of winning


Real Madrid
74.7%		Draw
15.5%		Valencia
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
71.3% 17.3% 11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2% 17.1% 11.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
  • Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
    •

    Real Madrid - Valencia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.29 ↓
    (1.35)    		 6.25 ↑
    (5.57)    		 10.01 ↑
    (8.42)    		 3.5%
    (4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

  • Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fubo (for US customers)
  • Network on : ESPN Deportes
    •
    What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Valencia?
  • Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 51 - 89.5%). Valencia will win (votes: 3 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 81.5% – 97.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Real won 3.
    • Real is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Recent matches Valencia is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Valencia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Real is the unquestionable favorite.
    • There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Courtois T. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Valencia: Correia T. (Knee Injury) Foulquier D. (Yellow Cards) Gaya J. (Yellow Cards) Rioja L. (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Real: Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Valencia: Ivan Jaime (Hamstring Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Real won 13 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 44:24 (average 2.2:1.2).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Real won 9 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 27:8 (average 2.7:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Valencia were as follows:
    03.01.2025 Valencia - Real Madrid 1:2
    02.03.2024 Valencia - Real Madrid 2:2
    11.11.2023 Real Madrid - Valencia 5:1
    21.05.2023 Valencia - Real Madrid 1:0
    02.02.2023 Real Madrid - Valencia 2:0
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    01.04.2025 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:4 ✺
    29.03.2025 Real Madrid - Leganés 3:2 ✺
    15.03.2025 Villarreal - Real Madrid 1:2 ✺
    12.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:1 ✺
    09.03.2025 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Valencia
    30.03.2025 Valencia - Mallorca 1:0 ✺
    15.03.2025 Girona - Valencia 1:1 ✺
    08.03.2025 Valencia - Valladolid 2:1 ✺
    02.03.2025 Osasuna - Valencia 3:3 ✺
    22.02.2025 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:3 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Real Sociedad00000:000
    2Elche00000:000
    3Alaves00000:000
    4Celta Vigo00000:000
    5Rayo Vallecano00000:000
    6Real Madrid00000:000
    7Villarreal00000:000
    8Barcelona00000:000
    9Atl. Madrid00000:000
    10Sevilla00000:000
    11Mallorca00000:000
    12Valencia00000:000
    13Ath Bilbao00000:000
    14Espanyol00000:000
    15Betis00000:000
    16Getafe00000:000
    17Osasuna00000:000
    18Levante00000:000
    19Girona00000:000
    20R. Oviedo00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Real Madrid - Valencia?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
    albaniaAlbaniaK-Sport 1, SuperSport 1
    angolaAngolaZ Sport La Liga
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN
    armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
    australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
    austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
    belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 3
    brazilBrazilDisney+
    bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
    canadaCanadaTSN+
    chileChileDisney+
    chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
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    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
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    cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
    czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4
    denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
    europeEuropeGo3 Sport 1 Baltic, Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
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    franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
    georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
    germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
    greeceGreeceNova Sports 1
    haitiHaitiCanal+ Sport 1
    hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
    hungaryHungarySpiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
    indiaIndiaGXR World
    indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
    israelIsraelONE Sport
    italyItalyDAZN Italia
    japanJapanDAZN Japan, U-NEXT
    kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
    kenyaKenyaGotv
    laosLaosbeIN Connect
    malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
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    maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 4
    mexicoMexicoSky Sport
    mozambiqueMozambiqueStartimes Mania
    netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport
    new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
    nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport LaLiga
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
    north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
    norwayNorwayTV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
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    polandPolandCANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport
    portugalPortugalDAZN 1
    romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
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    singaporeSingaporebeIN Sport 1
    slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1
    south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
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    spainSpainDAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
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    switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
    taiwanTaiwanDAZN
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    thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
    turkeyTurkeyExxen, S Sport, S Sport+
    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
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    usaUsaESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
    uzbekistanUzbekistanZor TV
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