Result
2:1
23/03/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelia, hard - 1/16-finals
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| 1st serve percentage |
|---|
| 41% | 70% |
| 1st serve points won |
|---|
| 78% (36/46) | 65% (46/71) |
| 2nd serve points won |
|---|
| 45% (30/66) | 37% (11/30) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 7/11 | 9/14 |
| 1st return points won |
|---|
| 35% (25/71) | 26% (12/46) |
| 2nd return points won |
|---|
| 63% (19/30) | 55% (36/66) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 5/14 | 4/11 |
| Winners |
|---|
| 31 | 26 |
| Unforced errors |
|---|
| 43 | 52 |
| Net points won |
|---|
| 67% (16/24) | 50% (13/26) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 57% (61/107) | 56% (57/101) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 44% (44/101) | 43% (46/107) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 50% (105/208) | 50% (103/208) |
| Last 10 balls |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Match points saved |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Service games won |
|---|
| 71% (10/14) | 64% (9/14) |
| Return games won |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 29% (4/14) |
| Total games won |
|---|
| 54% (15/28) | 46% (13/28) |
Chances of winning
Shintaro Mochizuki
58.8% | Keegan Smith
41.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↑
(1.5) |
|
2.28 ↓
(2.5) |
7.3%
(6.7%) | |
What is the prediction for Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Mochizuki will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Smith will win (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 129. Smith is ranked ATP: 301.
- Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.
- Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Mochizuki might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mochizuki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Shintaro Mochizuki won against Keegan Smith?
Shintaro Mochizuki has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Keegan Smith won against Shintaro Mochizuki?
Keegan Smith has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith were as follows:
16.01.2023
Shintaro Mochizuki
-
Keegan Smith
2:0
Latest results of Shintaro Mochizuki
Latest results of Keegan Smith
Draw
Singles - Main1/16-finals| 1 | Duckworth J. (1) | Huesler M. | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Pacheco Mendez R. (Alt) | Ayeni A. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Zhukayev B. | Vandecasteele Q. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Krueger M. | Gojo B. (8) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Wong C. (4) | Mejia N. | 0 : 2 |
| 6 | Kozlov S. | Martin A. | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Polmans M. (Q) | Mena F. (Q) | 2 : 1 |
| 8 | Crawford O. | Rodesch C. (6) | 0 : 2 |
| 9 | Mochizuki S. (5) | Smith K. (Alt) | 2 : 1 |
| 10 | Ficovich J. P. | Alves M. (LL) | 2 : 0 |
| 11 | Hernandez A. (WC) | Andrade A. | 0 : 2 |
| 12 | Catry R. (Q) | Schoolkate T. | 0 : 2 |
| 13 | Bu Y. (7) | Wiskandt M. (LL) | 2 : 0 |
| 14 | Galarneau A. | Tobon M. (Q) | 2 : 1 |
| 15 | Magadan A. (WC) | Rubio Fierros A. F. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 16 | Pavlovic L. | Walton A. (2) | 2 : 0 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Duckworth J. (1) | Pacheco Mendez R. | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Vandecasteele Q. | Gojo B. (8) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Mejia N. | Martin A. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Polmans M. | Rodesch C. (6) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Mochizuki S. (5) | Ficovich J. P. | 1 : 2 |
| 6 | Andrade A. | Schoolkate T. | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Bu Y. (7) | Galarneau A. | 0 : 2 |
| 8 | Magadan A. | Pavlovic L. | 0 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Pacheco Mendez R. | Gojo B. (8) | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Mejia N. | Rodesch C. (RET.) (6) | 0 : 0 |
| 3 | Ficovich J. P. | Schoolkate T. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Galarneau A. | Pavlovic L. | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Gojo B. (8) | Mejia N. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Ficovich J. P. | Pavlovic L. | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Gojo B. (8) | Ficovich J. P. | 2 : 0 |
