Result
3:1
11/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 25
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | Stan Sport |
 China | K-Ball |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.49 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (429/489) | 85% (390/460) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.36 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 39 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (429/489) | 85% (390/460) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (17/35) | 52% (25/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (140/177) | 69% (63/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 53% (8/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 1.01 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 63% (12/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.36 | 1.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.64 | -0.74 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 2', 0 - 1, Horigome Y. ⚽,
- 13', 1 - 1, Nakajima M. ⚽, Fernandes L. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 54', 2 - 1, Fernandes L. ⚽, Homma S. (A),
- 61', Kasai K. ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
- 61', Horigome Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
- 71', Nakajima M. ↓, Rafael Ratao ↑,
- 71', Homma S. ↓, Thiago Andrade ↑,
- 73', Okumura J. ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,
- 73', Arai T. ↓, Uemura H. ↑,
- 78', Kida H. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
- 78', Inoue R. ↓, Nishio R. ↑,
- 78', Fujiwara S. 🟨,
- 81', 3 - 1, Fujiwara S. (Own goal),
- 82', Shirai E. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
- 84', Shibayama M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Cerezo Osaka
53.6% | Draw
24.6% | Albirex Niigata
21.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.84 ↑
(1.66) |
3.96 ↓
(4.09) |
4.43 ↓
(4.78) |
2.1%
(5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata?
Users Predictions:
Cerezo Osaka will win
(30 of 34 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.41% – 99.07%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerezo Osaka will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 1.
- Cerezo Osaka has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Niigata is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Cerezo Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Cerezo Osaka is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y.
(Knee Injury)
Noborizato K.
(Inactive)
Takahashi N.
(Foot Injury)
Uejo S.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Niigata: Fitzgerald M.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Niigata: Hashimoto K.
(Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.2:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.5:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Albirex Niigata?
Cerezo Osaka has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Cerezo Osaka?
Albirex Niigata has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata were as follows:
02.03.2025
Albirex Niigata
-
Cerezo Osaka
2:2
20.07.2024
Cerezo Osaka
-
Albirex Niigata
1:2
07.04.2024
Albirex Niigata
-
Cerezo Osaka
0:1
03.12.2023
Albirex Niigata
-
Cerezo Osaka
1:0
18.02.2023
Cerezo Osaka
-
Albirex Niigata
2:2
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Latest results of Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kyoto | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 53:31 | 22 | 55 |
| 2 | Kashima Antlers | 29 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 44:27 | 17 | 55 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 42:28 | 14 | 54 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 37:26 | 11 | 54 |
| 5 | Machida | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 46:32 | 14 | 51 |
| 6 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 35:21 | 14 | 51 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 53:38 | 15 | 48 |
| 8 | Urawa Reds | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 39:31 | 8 | 47 |
| 9 | Gamba Osaka | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 39:44 | -5 | 43 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 46:41 | 5 | 42 |
| 11 | Okayama | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 26:29 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 30:32 | -2 | 37 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 32:36 | -4 | 36 |
| 14 | Nagoya Grampus | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35:42 | -7 | 32 |
| 15 | Verdy | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 16:28 | -12 | 32 |
| 16 | FC Tokyo | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 30:42 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 26:38 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Shonan Bellmare | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 26:50 | -24 | 25 |
| 19 | Yokohama FC | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 19:36 | -17 | 24 |
| 20 | Albirex Niigata | 29 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27:49 | -22 | 20 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League
