Result
2:1
12/03/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 5
- Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, Sporty TV App |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports Player |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.62 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (368/439) | 85% (373/438) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.62 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (368/439) | 85% (373/438) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (20/45) | 45% (19/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (131/175) | 77% (110/143) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 5% (1/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.72 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 56% (14/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 46 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | -0.84 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 40', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Marlon Freitas (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Lucas Piton ↓, Cuiabano ↑,
- 52', Tche Tche 🟨,
- 57', Tche Tche ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 57', Moreira N. ↓, Adson ↑,
- 63', 1 - 1, Thiago Mendes ⚽, David (A),
- 69', Lopez J. ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 69', David ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
- 69', Felipe Anderson ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
- 72', Luighi 🟨,
- 72', Sosa R. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 72', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
- 74', 2 - 1, Cuiabano ⚽, Paulo Henrique (A),
- 78', Hugo Moura ↓, Cauan Barros ↑,
- 85', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
- 90+4', Allan Elias 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
31% | Draw
29.5% | Palmeiras
39.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Vasco da Gama have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.04 ↑
(3.01) |
3.2 ↓
(3.34) |
2.41 ↑
(2.27) |
5.6%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 58% – 94.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Palmeiras (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Palmeiras (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palmeiras will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 0.
- Vasco has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palmeiras is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Vasco: Jair
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 13:28. (average 0.7:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.9:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Palmeiras?
Vasco da Gama has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Vasco da Gama?
Palmeiras has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras were as follows:
01.10.2025
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
3:0
04.05.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Palmeiras
0:1
22.09.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Palmeiras
0:1
13.06.2024
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
2:0
27.08.2023
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:12 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19:16 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:21 | -1 | 17 |
| 13 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 18 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
