Arbroath vs Ayr United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

03/03/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Gayfield Park (Arbroath).

Championship - Round 25
Referee: Hardie R. (Sco)

Match Stats


Ball possession
44%	56%
Total shots
4	6
Shots on target
3	1
Corner kicks
4	2
Yellow cards
1	2
Total shots
4	6
Shots on target
3	1
Shots off target
1	5
Corner kicks
4	2

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Muirhead A. ↓, Dow R. ↑,
55', Beadling T. ↓, Cochrane H. ↑,
61', Finney G. ↓, McAllister N. ↑,
61', Bannigan S. ↓, Ure K. ↑,
67', Lang T. 🟨,
67', Robinson S. ↓, Reilly G. ↑,
71', Dempsey B. 🟨,
73', Summers B. ↓, Bonnar J. ↑,
73', Dick L. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Marshall F. ⚽, Dow R. (A),
80', Flynn R. ↓, Mebude D. ↑,
85', McKenzie M. ↓, Turley F. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Dowds A. ⚽, Rus M. (A),
90', McMann S. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Arbroath
38.8%

Draw
28.8%

Ayr United
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

29%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Arbroath - Ayr United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.45)	3.2 ↑ (3.15)	2.85 ↑ (2.7)	8.2% (9.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Arbroath - Ayr United?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Arbroath will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Ayr will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -0.5 - Ayr (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Ayr (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 0.
Arbroath is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Ayr has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Arbroath may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Arbroath won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Arbroath won against Ayr United?

Arbroath has won 2 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ayr United won against Arbroath?

Ayr United has won 4 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Arbroath - Ayr United were as follows:

15.11.2025 Ayr United - Arbroath 1:1

01.08.2025 Arbroath - Ayr United 1:1

19.07.2025 Ayr United - Arbroath 4:0

13.04.2024 Ayr United - Arbroath 5:0

23.01.2024 Ayr United - Arbroath 2:0

Latest results of Arbroath

28.02.2026 Partick Thistle - Arbroath 0:0 ✺

21.02.2026 Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic 4:2 ✺

03.02.2026 Arbroath - Airdrieonians 2:3 ✺

31.01.2026 Queens Park - Arbroath 2:1 ✺

23.01.2026 Arbroath - Greenock Morton 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Ayr United

28.02.2026 St. Johnstone - Ayr United 3:1 ✺

24.02.2026 Ayr United - Inverness 1:2 ✺

21.02.2026 Ayr United - Ross County 0:0 ✺

17.02.2026 St. Johnstone - Ayr United 3:4 ✺

31.01.2026 Ayr United - Raith Rovers 2:1 ✺

Scottish Football Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Johnstone	29	17	9	3	53:22	31	60
2	Partick Thistle	28	14	10	4	42:31	11	52
3	Arbroath	29	11	11	7	37:33	4	44
4	Dunfermline	28	11	6	11	40:32	8	39
5	Ayr	28	7	14	7	34:34	0	35
6	Queen's Park	29	8	11	10	32:41	-9	35
7	Raith	28	7	9	12	28:31	-3	30
8	Morton	29	6	12	11	29:40	-11	30
9	Airdrieonians	29	6	9	14	23:36	-13	27
10	Ross County	29	6	9	14	25:43	-18	27

      Promotion ~ Premiership
      Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Semi~finals)
      Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Quarter~finals)
      Championship (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ League One