Result
1:1
07/02/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 23
- Referee: Piccolo L. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.86 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (192/252) | 89% (487/548) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.86 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 1.63 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (192/252) | 89% (487/548) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (28/51) | 58% (37/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (35/65) | 72% (89/124) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 35% (7/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 24 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 67% (4/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.63 | 1.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.63 | 0.60 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Grgic A. 🟨,
- 34', Steffen R. 🟨,
- 39', Mahou H. 🟨,
- 45+1', Bislimi U. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 57', Bislimi U. 🟨,
- 60', Sidler S. 🟨,
- 60', Mahou H. ↓, Mai L. ↑,
- 61', 1 - 0, Hunziker A. ⚽, Golliard T. (A),
- 71', Buess R. ↓, Maluvunu E. ↑,
- 73', Papadopoulos A. ↓, Koutsias G. ↑,
- 73', Dos Santos D. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
- 74', Smith R. 🟨,
- 76', Smith R. ↓, Diaby S. ↑,
- 76', Golliard T. ↓, Schneider R. ↑,
- 78', Diaby S. 🟨,
- 79', Jankewitz A. 🟨,
- 80', 1 - 1, Grgic A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 88', Kasami P. ↓, Maksutaj L. ↑,
- 89', Sidler S. ↓, Dansoko B. ↑,
- 89', Steffen R. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Winterthur
19.1% | Draw
21.6% | Lugano
59.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Winterthur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Winterthur than the current prediction. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Winterthur - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.86 ↑
(4.51) |
4.35 ↑
(4.26) |
1.59 ↓
(1.66) |
6.5%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Winterthur - Lugano?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Lugano (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Lugano (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Lugano will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lugano will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Lugano (votes: 6 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 0.
- Winterthur has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lugano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Lugano is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Winterthur: Burkart N.
(Inactive)
Cueni S.
(Red Card)
Luthi L.
(Thigh Injury)
Momoh F.
(Inactive)
Stillhart B.
(Inactive)
Ulrich D.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Inactive)
Belhadj M.
(Red Card)
Cassano C.
(Inactive)
Marques M.
(Injury)
Mina D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Winterthur: Diaby S.
(Injury)
Zuffi L.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Delcroix H.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 19:44. (average 1:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Winterthur won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 1.1:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Winterthur won against Lugano?
Winterthur has won 1 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Winterthur?
Lugano has won 10 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Winterthur - Lugano were as follows:
24.01.2026
Lugano
-
Winterthur
4:1
05.10.2025
Winterthur
-
Lugano
2:4
25.01.2025
Winterthur
-
Lugano
2:3
29.09.2024
Lugano
-
Winterthur
2:1
16.05.2024
Lugano
-
Winterthur
4:2
Latest results of Winterthur
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 27 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 62:29 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 53:33 | 20 | 50 |
| 3 | Lugano | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Basel | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 41:35 | 6 | 43 |
| 5 | Sion | 27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 39:30 | 9 | 41 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 55:52 | 3 | 39 |
| 7 | Luzern | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 53:51 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Zurich | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 39:53 | -14 | 31 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 40:44 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Servette | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 44:51 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 35:47 | -12 | 24 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 30:77 | -47 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
