FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/06/2025 at 19:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.75	1.26
Ball Possession
62%	38%
Total shots
14	10
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
6	5
Passes
85% (383/451)	76% (218/287)
Yellow Cards
5	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75	1.26
xG on target (xGOT)
0.90	0.87
Total shots
14	10
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
6	4
Blocked Shots
3	2
Shots inside the Box
8	4
Shots outside the Box
6	6
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
6	5
Touches in opposition box
17	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
9	12
Passes
85% (383/451)	76% (218/287)
Long passes
55% (40/73)	52% (26/50)
Passes in final third
76% (94/124)	50% (35/70)
Crosses
24% (8/33)	14% (1/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.76	0.84
Throw-ins
17	17
Fouls
12	9
Tackles
63% (15/24)	83% (10/12)
Duels won
49	48
Clearances
12	33
Interceptions
9	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	5
xGOT faced
0.87	0.90
Goals prevented
-0.13	0.90

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Zambrano C. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
57', Barcos H. 🟨,
58', Quevedo K. 🟨,
58', Martinez T. 🟨,
60', Tandazo W. 🟨,
65', Cantero A. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
65', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
69', Bordacahar C. ↓, Cuesta B. ↑,
74', Castillo J. 🟨,
74', Quevedo K. ↓, Soyer B. ↑,
81', Cuesta B. 🟨,
83', Orzan H. 🟨,
84', 0 - 1, Gaibor F. (Pen),
85', Guzman L. ↓, Cabanillas N. ↑,
85', Lazo M. ↓, Barreda M. ↑,
88', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
90+6', Barrios P. 🟨,

Chances of winning

FBC Melgar
49.6%

Draw
29.1%

Alianza Lima
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

30.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.2)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)	4.33 ↑ (3.39)	7.6% (6.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima?

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Melgar (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.
Recent performances by Melgar have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Alianza Lima is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Melgar is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.2:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has FBC Melgar won against Alianza Lima?

FBC Melgar has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against FBC Melgar?

Alianza Lima has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima were as follows:

28.09.2024 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 1:1

28.04.2024 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima 1:0

28.09.2023 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 0:0

19.05.2023 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima 2:1

12.11.2022 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 2:0

Latest results of FBC Melgar

21.06.2025 Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar 2:2 ✺

14.06.2025 FBC Melgar - Sport Boys 2:1 ✺

27.05.2025 Vasco da Gama - FBC Melgar 3:0 ✺

23.05.2025 Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar 1:1 ✺

18.05.2025 FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Alianza Lima

18.06.2025 Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Lima 0:1 ✺

14.06.2025 Alianza Lima - Sport Huancayo 0:0 ✺

27.05.2025 Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima 2:2 ✺

23.05.2025 Sport Boys - Alianza Lima 0:1 ✺

19.05.2025 Alianza Lima - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco 2:0 ✺

Peruvian Liga 1 Table

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	U. de Deportes	11	8	3	0	20:8	12	27
2	Cusco	11	7	1	3	18:10	8	22
3	AD Tarma	12	6	2	4	15:15	0	20
4	Sporting Cristal	11	5	4	2	20:8	12	19
5	Alianza Lima	12	5	3	4	18:14	4	18
6	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	4	6	1	14:12	2	18
7	FBC Melgar	12	4	5	3	18:13	5	17
8	Sport Huancayo	13	4	3	6	23:22	1	15
9	Cienciano	11	4	3	4	16:15	1	15
10	Comerciantes Unidos	11	4	3	4	13:16	-3	15
11	Los Chankas	10	5	0	5	14:23	-9	15
12	Grau	11	4	2	5	16:15	1	14
13	Alianza Huanuco	12	4	1	7	14:24	-10	13
14	Sport Boys	12	3	3	6	10:16	-6	12
15	Juan Pablo II	10	2	5	3	9:11	-2	11
16	Alianza Atl	10	2	4	4	6:6	0	10
17	Ayacucho	11	3	1	7	8:17	-9	10
18	Cajamarca	11	1	3	7	9:16	-7	6
19	Binacional	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

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