Alex De Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ATP Madrid
Result
2:0
29/04/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Aces
16
Double Faults
05
1st Serve Percentage
57%63%
1st Serve Points Won
81% (30/37)68% (28/41)
2nd Serve Points Won
75% (21/28)63% (15/24)
Break Points Saved
100% (1/1)33% (1/3)
1st Return Points Won
32% (13/41)27% (10/37)
2nd Return Points Won
38% (9/24)25% (7/28)
Break Points Converted
67% (2/3)0% (0/1)
Winners
1323
Unforced Errors
1535
Net Points Won
83% (5/6)71% (5/7)
Service Points Won
77% (48/62)66% (43/65)
Return Points Won
34% (22/65)23% (14/62)
Total Points Won
55% (70/127)45% (57/127)
Last 10 Balls
73
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
100% (10/10)82% (9/11)
Return Games Won
18% (2/11)0% (0/10)
Total Games Won
57% (12/21)43% (9/21)

Chances of winning


Alex De Minaur
76.5%		Denis Shapovalov
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
68.5% 31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8% 30.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.
  • Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Denis Shapovalov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Denis Shapovalov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.25 ↓
    (1.37)
    		4 ↑
    (2.98)    		 5.1%
    (6.9%)
    What is the prediction for Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov?
  • Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 24 - 75%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 8 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 60% – 90%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +1.5 Sets - De Minaur (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 Sets - De Minaur (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -4.5 Games - De Minaur (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 21.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -5.5 Games - De Minaur (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -5 Games - De Minaur (2.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -4 Games - De Minaur (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -3.5 Games - De Minaur (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -3 Games - De Minaur (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 Sets - De Minaur (1.82) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • H/A, 2nd Set - De Minaur (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • H/A, 1st Set - De Minaur (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 Games, 2nd Set - De Minaur (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.5 Games, 2nd Set - De Minaur (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.5 Games, 1st Set - De Minaur (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 Games, 1st Set - De Minaur (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Shapovalov (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 30.
    • Recent matches De Minaur is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Shapovalov is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • De Minaur could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match De Minaur is a favorite.
    • Last 4 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:2 (average 2:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov were as follows:
    21.10.2022 Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov 2:0
    Latest results of Alex De Minaur
    26.04.2025 Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego 2:0 ✺
    18.04.2025 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur 2:0 ✺
    17.04.2025 Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur 0:2 ✺
    15.04.2025 Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Alex De Minaur 0:2 ✺
    12.04.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Denis Shapovalov
    26.04.2025 Kei Nishikori - Denis Shapovalov 0:2 ✺
    15.04.2025 Diego Dedura-Palomero - Denis Shapovalov Shapovalov D. retired
    15.04.2025 Gael Monfils - Denis Shapovalov Canceled ✺
    07.04.2025 Marcos Giron - Denis Shapovalov 2:0 ✺
    24.03.2025 Taylor Harry Fritz - Denis Shapovalov 2:0 ✺
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Bonzi B. (Q)Droguet T. (Q)2 : 1
    3Moller E. (Q)Cina F. (WC)2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (32)
    5Norrie C. (19)Bye
    6Machac T.Comesana F.2 : 1
    7Bautista-Agut R.Tirante T. A.0 : 2
    8ByePaul T. (15)
    9Rublev A. (9)Bye
    10Zhang Z. (PR)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    11Sonego L.Lajovic D. (Q)0 : 2
    12ByeRinderknech A. (22)
    13Fonseca J. (27)Bye
    14Bergs Z.Cilic M.1 : 2
    15Jodar R. (WC)De Jong J.2 : 1
    16ByeDe Minaur A. (5)
    17Shelton B. (4)Bye
    18Prizmic D. (Q)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    19Basilashvili N. (Q)Ofner S.0 : 2
    20ByeEtcheverry T. M. (25)
    21Fils A. (21)Bye
    22Buse I.Mannarino A.2 : 0
    23Brooksby J.Nava E.0 : 2
    24ByeVacherot V. (14)
    25Lehecka J. (11)Bye
    26Tabilo A.Royer V.2 : 0
    27Muller A.Struff J-L.0 : 2
    28ByeMichelsen A. (33)
    29Griekspoor T. (29)Bye
    30Dzumhur D.Bellucci M.2 : 0
    31Faria J. (Q)Hurkacz H.0 : 2
    32ByeMusetti L. (6)
    33Bublik A. (8)Bye
    34Kypson P. (LL)Tsitsipas S.1 : 2
    35Trungelliti M. (LL)Merida Aguilar D. (Q)1 : 2
    36ByeMoutet C. (26)
    37Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Bye
    38Carreno-Busta P. (WC)Fucsovics M.2 : 1
    39Munar J.Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    40ByeRuud C. (12)
    41Cerundolo F. (16)Bye
    42Hanfmann Y.Giron M.2 : 1
    43Altmaier D.Cerundolo J. M.0 : 2
    44ByeDarderi L. (18)
    45Nakashima B. (28)Bye
    46Garin C. (LL)Blockx A.1 : 2
    47Gaubas V. (Q)Baez S.2 : 0
    48ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (3)
    49Medvedev D. (7)Bye
    50Marozsan F.Quinn E.2 : 0
    51Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)Opelka R. (RET.)0 : 0
    52ByeShapovalov D. (31)
    53Tien L. (17)Bye
    54Vallejo D. (Q)Dimitrov G.2 : 0
    55Ugo Carabelli C.Monfils G. (WC)2 : 0
    56ByeCobolli F. (10)
    57Khachanov K. (13)Bye
    58Landaluce M. (WC)Walton A.0 : 2
    59Popyrin A.Damm M. (Q)0 : 2
    60ByeMensik J. (23)
    61Humbert U. (30)Bye
    62Atmane T.Kecmanovic M.2 : 0
    63Borges N.Navone M.0 : 2
    64ByeZverev A. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bonzi B. (Q)2 : 1
    2Moller E. (Q)Diallo G. (RET.) (32)1 : 0
    3Norrie C. (19)Machac T.2 : 1
    4Tirante T. A.Paul T. (15)2 : 0
    5Rublev A. (9)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    6Lajovic D.Rinderknech A. (22)0 : 2
    7Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)Cilic M.
    8Jodar R.De Minaur A. (5)2 : 0
    9Shelton B. (4)Prizmic D.1 : 2
    10Ofner S.Etcheverry T. M. (25)0 : 2
    11Fils A. (21)Buse I.2 : 1
    12Nava E.Vacherot V. (14)2 : 1
    13Lehecka J. (11)Tabilo A.2 : 1
    14Struff J-L.Michelsen A. (33)0 : 2
    15Griekspoor T. (29)Dzumhur D.2 : 0
    16Hurkacz H.Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    17Bublik A. (8)Tsitsipas S.0 : 2
    18Merida Aguilar D.Moutet C. (26)2 : 0
    19Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Carreno-Busta P.2 : 0
    20Munar J.Ruud C. (12)0 : 2
    21Cerundolo F. (16)Hanfmann Y.2 : 0
    22Cerundolo J. M.Darderi L. (18)0 : 2
    23Nakashima B. (28)Blockx A.1 : 2
    24Gaubas V.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)0 : 2
    25Medvedev D. (7)Marozsan F.2 : 1
    26Budkov Kjaer N.Shapovalov D. (31)2 : 0
    27Tien L. (17)Vallejo D.0 : 2
    28Ugo Carabelli C.Cobolli F. (10)1 : 2
    29Khachanov K. (13)Walton A.2 : 0
    30Damm M.Mensik J. (23)0 : 2
    31Humbert U. (30)Atmane T.0 : 2
    32Navone M.Zverev A. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Moller E.2 : 0
    2Norrie C. (19)Tirante T. A.2 : 0
    3Kopriva V.Rinderknech A. (RET.) (22)1 : 1
    4Fonseca J. (27)Jodar R.1 : 2
    5Prizmic D.Etcheverry T. M. (25)1 : 2
    6Fils A. (21)Nava E.2 : 0
    7Lehecka J. (11)Michelsen A. (33)2 : 0
    8Griekspoor T. (29)Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    9Tsitsipas S.Merida Aguilar D.2 : 0
    10Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Ruud C. (12)0 : 2
    11Cerundolo F. (16)Darderi L. (18)2 : 0
    12Blockx A.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)2 : 0
    13Medvedev D. (7)Budkov Kjaer N.2 : 0
    14Vallejo D.Cobolli F. (10)0 : 2
    15Khachanov K. (13)Mensik J. (23)0 : 2
    16Atmane T.Zverev A. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Norrie C. (19)
    2Kopriva V.Jodar R.
    3Etcheverry T. M. (25)Fils A. (21)
    4Lehecka J. (11)Musetti L. (6)
    5Tsitsipas S.Ruud C. (12)
    6Cerundolo F. (16)Blockx A.
    7Medvedev D. (7)Cobolli F. (10)
    8Mensik J. (23)Zverev A. (2)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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