Result
1:2
14/09/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Besta deild karla - Round 22
- Referee: Thrastarson S. H. (Ice)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 Iceland | SÝN Sport Ísland, SÝN Sport Ísland 3 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.80 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (331/410) | 77% (259/336) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.80 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 1.41 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 15 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 42 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (331/410) | 77% (259/336) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (25/48) | 44% (28/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (87/130) | 63% (60/95) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (5/17) | 34% (12/35) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 2.13 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 56% (9/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 43 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.41 | 1.80 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.59 | 0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 10', Heimisson B. 🟨,
- 12', 0 - 1, Bjarnason A. ⚽,
- 17', 1 - 1, Heimisson L. ⚽, Agustsson S. (A),
- 31', Nokkvason G. 🟨,
- 32', Tufegdzic S. 🟨,
- 33', 1 - 2, Eggertsson O. ⚽, Waren B. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 73', Bjarnason A. ↓, Gudlaugsson B. ↑,
- 76', Skoglund A. ↓, Palsson A. ↑,
- 76', Lundemo M. ↓, Gunnarsson H. ↑,
- 78', Fridjonsson S. 🟨,
- 78', Palsson A. 🟨,
- 86', Sigurdsson K. ↓, Stefansson S. ↑,
- 86', Palsson J. ↓, Jonsson B. ↑,
- 87', Gunnarsson J. ↓, Ingimarsson S. T. ↑,
- 90', Fridjonsson S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Valur
41.2% | Draw
26.8% | Stjarnan
32% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Valur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Valur's form might have worsened.Stjarnan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stjarnan's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valur than the current prediction. (+15.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (-9.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stjarnan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Valur - Stjarnan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.75 ↑
(1.68) |
4.23 ↑
(4.15) |
3.55 ↓
(4.05) |
-11.8%
(8.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.75
What is the prediction for Valur - Stjarnan?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Valur will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Stjarnan will win (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: )).
- Valur is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
- Stjarnan is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valur won 2.
- Recent performances by Valur have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Stjarnan is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Valur is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Valur won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 41:28. (average 2.1:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Valur won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:12. (average 2.5:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Valur won against Stjarnan?
Valur has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Stjarnan won against Valur?
Stjarnan has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Valur - Stjarnan were as follows:
01.07.2025
Valur
-
Stjarnan
3:1
14.06.2025
Stjarnan
-
Valur
3:2
23.09.2024
Valur
-
Stjarnan
2:2
30.05.2024
Valur
-
Stjarnan
5:1
19.04.2024
Stjarnan
-
Valur
1:0
Latest results of Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla Table
Relegation Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 24:28 | -4 | 29 |
| 2 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29:39 | -10 | 29 |
| 3 | Vestri | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 23:32 | -9 | 27 |
| 4 | Akranes | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 30:43 | -13 | 25 |
| 5 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 42:51 | -9 | 24 |
| 6 | Afturelding | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 29:39 | -10 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
