Espérance ST vs Mamelodi Sundowns – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

08/04/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi (Radès).

CAF Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
Referee: Sy I. (Sen)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport PSL, Supersport WWE
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	SportKlub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport 3, SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SABC 1, SuperSport PSL, SuperSport Variety 4, SuperSport WWE
Tunisia	Watania 1
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.63	0.26
Ball Possession
46%	54%
Total shots
9	8
Shots on target
2	2
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
5	2
Passes
74% (262/352)	83% (364/439)
Yellow Cards
1	4
Expected Goals (xG)
0.63	0.26
xG on target (xGOT)
0.96	0.45
Total shots
9	8
Shots on target
2	2
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
6	2
Shots outside the Box
3	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
17	7
Offsides
6	6
Free Kicks
18	11
Passes
74% (262/352)	83% (364/439)
Long passes
39% (28/72)	52% (33/64)
Passes in final third
60% (77/129)	68% (47/69)
Crosses
23% (5/22)	0% (0/1)
Expected assists (xA)
0.48	0.17
Fouls
11	18
Tackles
47% (8/17)	75% (9/12)
Duels won
53	41
Clearances Total
16	29
Interceptions
9	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
0.45	0.96
Goals prevented
0.45	0.96

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Jabri A. ↑,
46', Konate A. ↓, Jebali C. ↑,
49', Kekana G. 🟨,
56', Shalulile P. 🟨,
58', Ribeiro L. 🟨,
63', Yan Sasse ↓, Mokwana E. ↑,
66', Arthur Sales ↓, Rayners I. ↑,
73', Adams J. ↓, Aubaas B. J. ↑,
81', Williams R. 🟨,
82', Ribeiro L. ↓, Khoza M. ↑,
87', Ogbelu O. 🟨,
88', Tka H. ↓, Hamrouni M. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Espérance ST
47.9%

Draw
29.7%

Mamelodi Sundowns
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

32.4%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

33.2%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Espérance ST has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Espérance ST's performance.

Mamelodi Sundowns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mamelodi Sundowns might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espérance ST than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Espérance ST that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.32)	3.1 ↑ (2.85)	4.14 ↑ (3.34)	8.3% (8.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns?

Users Predictions: Espérance ST will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Espérance ST will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.
Espérance ST is Qualified for CAF Champions League (Play Offs )
Recent matches Espérance ST is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Mamelodi Sundowns is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Espérance ST could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Espérance ST is a favorite.
Last 5 head-to-head matches Espérance ST won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 0.8:0.4).
Including matches at home between the teams Espérance ST won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0 (average 0.5:0).

How many head-to-head matches has Espérance ST won against Mamelodi Sundowns?

Espérance ST has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mamelodi Sundowns won against Espérance ST?

Mamelodi Sundowns has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns were as follows:

01.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST 1:0

26.04.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST 0:1

20.04.2024 Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns 1:0

Latest results of Espérance ST

01.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST 1:0 ✺

12.03.2025 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane - Espérance ST 2:2 ✺

08.03.2025 Espérance ST - Ben Guerdane 1:1 ✺

01.03.2025 Gabès - Espérance ST 0:2 ✺

26.02.2025 Espérance ST - Étoile du Sahel 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Mamelodi Sundowns

01.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST 1:0 ✺

28.03.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - Sekhukhune United 1:0 ✺

16.03.2025 Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns 2:0 ✺

11.03.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - AmaZulu 2:0 ✺

05.03.2025 Lamontville Golden Arrows - Mamelodi Sundowns 1:1 ✺

Draw

2025/26

Semi-finals

1	Aigle Noir	ASAS	1 : 1, 0 : 0
2	Bye	Al Ahly
3	Ethiopian Insurance	Mlandege	2 : 3, 2 : 0
4	APR	Pyramids	0 : 3, 0 : 2
5	Mogadishu City	Police FC	2 : 0, 1 : 3
6	Jamus	Al-Hilal Omdurman	0 : 1, 0 : 0
7	Rahimo	Mangasport	1 : 0, 0 : 0
8	ASFAN	Esperance Tunis	1 : 4, 0 : 3
9	Dadje	Al Ahly Tripoli	0 : 1, 0 : 0
10	ASC Kara	Berkane	1 : 3, 1 : 1
11	East End Lions	Monastir	1 : 3, 0 : 4
12	Bibiani Gold Stars	Kabylie	0 : 5, 0 : 2
13	Fundacion Bata	Nouadhibou	0 : 2, 0 : 0
14	Tempete MOCAF	Stade Malien	0 : 2, 0 : 5
15	Al Hilal Benghazi	Horoya	0 : 2, 1 : 0
16	Real Banjul	FAR Rabat	1 : 2, 0 : 2
17	Colombe	Jaraaf	1 : 0, 0 : 0
18	Fassell	MC Alger	0 : 3, 0 : 0
19	Remo Stars	Zilimadjou	1 : 0, 4 : 0
20	Bye	Mamelodi Sundowns
21	Simba Bhora	Nsingizini Hotspurs	0 : 2, 1 : 0
22	Gaborone Utd	Simba	1 : 1, 0 : 1
23	Elgeco Plus	Silver Strikers	0 : 0, 1 : 1
24	Wiliete	Young Africans	0 : 2, 0 : 3
25	Cote d'Or	Stade d'Abidjan	1 : 3, 0 : 2
26	Cercle De Joachim	Petro Atletico	0 : 3, 0 : 3
27	Leopard	Black Bulls	0 : 1, 0 : 0
28	Aigles du Congo	Rivers United	0 : 1, 0 : 0
29	African Stars	Vipers	0 : 1, 0 : 1
30	Power Dynamos	ASEC Mimosas	1 : 1, 1 : 0
31	St Eloi Lupopo	Al-Merreikh	0 : 0, 1 : 0
32	Lioli	Orlando Pirates	0 : 4, 0 : 3

Final

1	Aigle Noir	Al Ahly	0 : 1, 0 : 1
2	Ethiopian Insurance	Pyramids	1 : 1
3	Police FC	Al-Hilal Omdurman	1 : 3, 0 : 1
4	Rahimo	Esperance Tunis	0 : 3, 0 : 1
5	Al Ahly Tripoli	Berkane	1 : 1
6	Monastir	Kabylie	1 : 2, 0 : 3
7	Nouadhibou	Stade Malien	0 : 2, 1 : 1
8	Horoya	FAR Rabat	0 : 3, 1 : 1
9	Colombe	MC Alger	0 : 0, 1 : 1
10	Remo Stars	Mamelodi Sundowns	0 : 2, 1 : 5
11	Nsingizini Hotspurs	Simba	0 : 0, 0 : 3
12	Silver Strikers	Young Africans	0 : 2, 1 : 0
13	Stade d'Abidjan	Petro Atletico	0 : 2, 0 : 2
14	Black Bulls	Rivers United	1 : 3, 1 : 0
15	Vipers	Power Dynamos	1 : 1, 1 : 2
16	St Eloi Lupopo	Orlando Pirates	1 : 3, 3 : 0