Result
1:1
28/02/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 24
- Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP |
 Albania | Tring Sport 2 |
 Angola | Z Sports 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 |
 Brazil | SporTV |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, OneSoccer |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | See, Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 3 |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player |
 Hungary | Arena 4 |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Sony LIV, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka |
 Mexico | Izzi TV, Sky Sport |
 Mongolia | Premier Sports 5 |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2 |
 Portugal | DAZN 4, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | MBC Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 5, Arena Sport 3 |
 Singapore | beIN Sports 3 |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 5, Voyo |
 Slovenia | Sport TV1 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 |
 Thailand | AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.73 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (642/738) | 77% (285/370) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 1.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (642/738) | 77% (285/370) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (23/45) | 40% (24/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (138/182) | 60% (66/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (2/22) | 24% (4/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.37 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 31 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 63% (12/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 18 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.87 | 1.88 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.88 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Arthur ↓, Tape A. ↑,
- 59', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
- 59', Poku E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
- 66', Posch S. 🟨,
- 66', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
- 67', 0 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
- 69', Becker S. ↓, Silas ↑,
- 72', Fernandez E. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
- 81', Widmer S. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
- 82', Palacios E. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
- 88', 1 - 1, Quansah J. ⚽, Kofane C. (A),
- 89', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
- 90+2', Maloney L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bayer Leverkusen
55.9% | Draw
23.6% | Mainz
20.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.71 ↑
(1.64) |
4.05 ↓
(4.27) |
4.69 ↓
(4.8) |
4.6%
(5.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Mainz (3.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.75 - Mainz (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Mainz (4.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Mainz (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Mainz (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Bayer Leverkusen will win
(42 of 49 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.91% – 95.51%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (10 of 13 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Mainz (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.
- Recent performances by Bayer have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Mainz is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Bayer: Bade L.
(Muscle Injury)
Ben Seghir E.
(Ankle Injury)
Flekken M.
(Injury)
Lucas
(Calf Injury)
Tella N.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Mainz: Bell S.
(Injury)
Caci A.
(Thigh Injury)
Dal M.
(Knee Injury)
Hanche-Olsen A.
(Inactive)
Hollerbach B.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Kawasaki S.
(Illness)
Veratschnig N.
(Illness)
Zentner R.
(Groin Injury)
- There are questionable in Bayer: Maza I.
(Injury)
Tillman M.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Mainz: Weiper N.
(Illness)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Bayer Leverkusen won against Mainz?
Bayer Leverkusen has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz were as follows:
18.10.2025
Mainz
-
Bayer Leverkusen
3:4
17.05.2025
Mainz
-
Bayer Leverkusen
2:2
14.01.2025
Bayer Leverkusen
-
Mainz
1:0
23.02.2024
Bayer Leverkusen
-
Mainz
2:1
30.09.2023
Mainz
-
Bayer Leverkusen
0:3
Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich ✔ | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116:35 | 81 | 83 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65:32 | 33 | 67 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63:42 | 21 | 62 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66:43 | 23 | 58 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66:46 | 20 | 58 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64:48 | 16 | 58 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 45:53 | -8 | 44 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 57:60 | -3 | 43 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 42:56 | -14 | 40 |
| 10 | Mainz | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41:50 | -9 | 37 |
| 11 | B. Monchengladbach | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 37:50 | -13 | 35 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 36:51 | -15 | 34 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 37:57 | -20 | 33 |
| 14 | FC Koln | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 47:55 | -8 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37:57 | -20 | 32 |
| 16 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42:67 | -25 | 26 |
| 17 | St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 26 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38:69 | -31 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
Clinched Spots for Teams
Bayern Munich is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
