Result
1:2
17/04/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier Division - Round 12
- Referee: O'Dowd A. (Irl)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ireland | LOI TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (523/628) | 70% (223/317) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.12 | 0.73 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (523/628) | 70% (223/317) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (59/103) | 36% (20/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (92/143) | 59% (64/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 46% (6/13) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.66 | 0.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (14/20) | 67% (14/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.73 | 2.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.27 | 1.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 7', Winchester C. 🟨,
- 20', 0 - 1, Cotter B. ⚽,
- 31', Kelly D. 🟨,
- 34', Fleming B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Kelly D. ↓, Jarvis W. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 1, Martin J. ⚽, Ledwidge K. (A),
- 55', Bone S. 🟨,
- 61', Doherty B. ↓, Olayinka J. ↑,
- 61', O'Reilly A. ↓, Dummigan C. ↑,
- 61', Clarke J. ↓, Markey D. ↑,
- 61', McInroy K. ↓, Coote A. ↑,
- 66', Henry-Francis J. 🟨,
- 67', Thomas J. ↓, Akinyemi D. ↑,
- 68', 1 - 2, Akinyemi D. ⚽, Dummigan C. (A),
- 75', Cotter B. ↓, Rylah H. ↑,
- 75', Henry-Francis J. ↓, Freitas R. ↑,
- 76', Caffrey E. ↓, Gannon S. ↑,
- 76', Martin J. 🟨,
- 81', Martin J. ↓, Boyd S. ↑,
- 90+7', McClean P. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Shelbourne
49.1% | Draw
28.5% | Derry City
22.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shelbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shelbourne's performance.Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derry City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shelbourne than the current prediction. (-9.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shelbourne that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+7.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derry City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Shelbourne - Derry City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↓
(2.36) |
3.28 ↑
(3.09) |
4.18 ↑
(3.22) |
6.8%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Shelbourne - Derry City?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Shelbourne will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Derry will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shelbourne: 19% – 81%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shelbourne (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Derry (2.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shelbourne (votes: 1 - 50%). Derry (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shelbourne won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Shelbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Derry has had a series of away games.
- Shelbourne is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shelbourne won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 0.6:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Shelbourne won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.5:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Shelbourne won against Derry City?
Shelbourne has won 3 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derry City won against Shelbourne?
Derry City has won 6 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shelbourne - Derry City were as follows:
13.03.2026
Derry City
-
Shelbourne
1:2
19.09.2025
Derry City
-
Shelbourne
1:1
20.06.2025
Shelbourne
-
Derry City
0:1
02.05.2025
Derry City
-
Shelbourne
2:0
14.02.2025
Shelbourne
-
Derry City
3:1
Latest results of Shelbourne
Latest results of Derry City
Irish Premier Division Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 20:11 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | St. Patricks | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 26:13 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 16:12 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23:20 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Derry City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21:22 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Galway | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17:19 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Drogheda | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10:18 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Waterford | 13 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 9:25 | -16 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Division 1
