Result
1:1
23/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Andorra | beIN Sports 1 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.70 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (244/331) | 81% (409/503) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (244/331) | 81% (409/503) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (27/61) | 61% (37/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 46% (31/68) | 61% (43/70) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.51 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 79% (11/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 63 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.22 | 0.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 29', 1 - 0, Gueye D. ⚽, Rabillard A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Robin M. ↓, Bretelle L. ↑,
- 53', Kocik N. 🟨,
- 53', Sidibe K. 🟨,
- 53', 1 - 1, Sidibe K. ⚽, Mafouta L. (A),
- 59', Mbemba F. ↓, Hatchi J. ↑,
- 59', Gueye D. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
- 60', Rabillard A. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
- 66', Demoncy Y. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
- 71', Bourabaa A. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
- 84', Yohou S. 🟨,
- 86', Rossignol M. 🟨,
- 90+5', Gomis D. ↓, Demouchy A. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/45m6jbsb
Chances of winning
Le Mans
36% | Draw
30% | Guingamp
33.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Le Mans - Guingamp Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.58 ↑
(2.41) |
3.1 ↓
(3.35) |
2.78 ↓
(2.79) |
7.1%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Le Mans - Guingamp?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Guingamp will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Mans: 21.5% – 71.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Le Mans (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1.3:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Le Mans won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Le Mans won against Guingamp?
Le Mans has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guingamp won against Le Mans?
Guingamp has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Le Mans - Guingamp were as follows:
09.08.2025
Guingamp
-
Le Mans
3:3
13.07.2024
Le Mans
-
Guingamp
2:1
Latest results of Le Mans
Latest results of Guingamp
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 29 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 51:30 | 21 | 58 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 29 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 51:30 | 21 | 54 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 29 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 45:29 | 16 | 53 |
| 4 | Reims | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 43:28 | 15 | 48 |
| 5 | Red Star | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 32:27 | 5 | 48 |
| 6 | Rodez | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 36:34 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 35:27 | 8 | 44 |
| 8 | Annecy | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 36:34 | 2 | 43 |
| 9 | Pau FC | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 41:48 | -7 | 42 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 44:35 | 9 | 40 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 39:42 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30:38 | -8 | 35 |
| 13 | Grenoble | 30 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 29:36 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Clermont | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 34:41 | -7 | 30 |
| 15 | Nancy | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 27:43 | -16 | 30 |
| 16 | Laval | 30 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 26:43 | -17 | 25 |
| 17 | Amiens | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 24 |
| 18 | Bastia | 29 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 16:32 | -16 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
