Result
3:1
13/02/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 22', 1 - 0, Aguayo S. ⚽, Moragrega V. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 53', 1 - 1, Torres E. ⚽, Razo L. (A),
- 55', 2 - 1, Jimenez L. ⚽, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. (A),
- 56', Bocco L. 🟨,
- 62', Rodriguez M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
- 67', Aguayo S. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
- 67', Jimenez L. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
- 68', Inda C. ↓, Ledesma L. ↑,
- 70', Razo L. ↓, Corona N. ↑,
- 76', Clemente J. 🟨,
- 77', Gonzalez C. ↓, Peralta J. ↑,
- 77', Clemente J. ↓, Lopez Gonzalez J. A. ↑,
- 78', Flores S. ↓, Soto O. ↑,
- 81', 3 - 1, Villaseca D. ⚽, Egurrola L. (A),
- 82', Moragrega V. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
- 86', Villaseca D. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
- 90', Medina C. 🟨,
- 90+6', Hernandez J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tapatío
36.7% | Draw
29.5% | Jaiba Brava
33.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)Jaiba Brava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jaiba Brava's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tapatío, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (-6.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jaiba Brava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Tapatío - Jaiba Brava Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.51 ↑
(2.19) |
3.12 ↑
(3.01) |
2.72 ↓
(3.24) |
8.7%
(9.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 2.
- Tapatío is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Jaiba Brava has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Jaiba Brava may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Tapatío won against Jaiba Brava?
Tapatío has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jaiba Brava won against Tapatío?
Jaiba Brava has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tapatío - Jaiba Brava were as follows:
06.09.2025
Jaiba Brava
-
Tapatío
2:1
25.01.2025
Jaiba Brava
-
Tapatío
1:0
09.08.2024
Tapatío
-
Jaiba Brava
2:0
Latest results of Tapatío
Latest results of Jaiba Brava
Draw
Clausura - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos (1) | Atlante (8) | 2 : 0, 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Atl. Morelia (3) | Zacatecas Mineros (6) | 2 : 0, 0 : 3 |
| 3 | Cancun (2) | Tapatio (7) | 1 : 0, 1 : 1 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz (4) | Jaiba Brava (5) | 1 : 2, 0 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos (1) | Zacatecas Mineros (6) | 1 : 1 |
| 2 | Cancun (2) | Jaiba Brava (5) | 1 : 2 |
Final
