Result
1:2
12/10/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- National League - Round 14
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Czech-republic | Sport 2 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 18 | 36 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 5.56% (1/18) | 5.56% (2/36) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 34 | 17 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 94.44% (34/36) | 94.44% (17/18) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 14.29% (1/7) | 0% (0/5) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (5/5) | 85.71% (6/7) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 24 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 54.72 | 45.28 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 0)
- 11:46, Turkulainen J. (2 min),
- 17:08, Aebischer D. (2 min),
- 18:35, 1 - 0, Turkulainen J. (G), Nattinen J. (A), Bellemare P-E. (A2)
- 19:10, Sgarbossa M. (2 min),
- 19:10, Sgarbossa M. (2 min),
- 19:10, Carrick C. (2 min),
- 19:10, Pedretti M. (2 min),
- 19:10, Pilet V. (2 min),
- 19:54, Thurkauf C. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 04:19, Christe G. (2 min),
- 14:50, 1 - 1, Sgarbossa M. (G), Bertaggia A. (A),
- 17:08, Bellemare P-E. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 1)
- 11:51, Morini G. (2 min),
- 13:01, 1 - 2, Canonica L. (G), Aebischer D. (A),
- 16:14, (2 min),
Chances of winning
Ajoie
35.2% | Draw
23.2% | Lugano
41.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajoie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajoie's performance.Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajoie than the current prediction. (-9.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajoie that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+11.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ajoie - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.67 ↓
(3.48) |
4.07 ↓
(4.35) |
2.27 ↑
(1.86) |
6.1%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
What is the prediction for Ajoie - Lugano?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Lugano will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 in the zone National League (Play Out: ) and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajoie won 0.
- Ajoie is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Lugano has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajoie won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 42:59. (average 2.1:3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ajoie won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:25. (average 2.7:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Ajoie won against Lugano?
Ajoie has won 5 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Ajoie?
Lugano has won 14 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ajoie - Lugano were as follows:
19.09.2025
Lugano
-
Ajoie
2:0
25.03.2025
Ajoie
-
Lugano
1:2
23.03.2025
Lugano
-
Ajoie
3:0
21.03.2025
Ajoie
-
Lugano
3:4
19.03.2025
Lugano
-
Ajoie
2:1
Swiss National League Hockey Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Davos | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 57:27 | 41 |
| 2 | Rapperswil-Jona | 15 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 54:36 | 35 |
| 3 | Lausanne | 16 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 57:36 | 30 |
| 4 | Fribourg | 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 51:36 | 27 |
| 5 | Servette | 15 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 43:59 | 26 |
| 6 | Zug | 15 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 37:37 | 25 |
| 7 | Zurich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 43:34 | 24 |
| 8 | Langnau Tigers | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 37:44 | 20 |
| 9 | EHC Kloten | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 37:42 | 20 |
| 10 | Biel | 14 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 42:40 | 19 |
| 11 | Lugano | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31:40 | 16 |
| 12 | Bern | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 22:35 | 14 |
| 13 | Ambri-Piotta | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 29:48 | 13 |
| 14 | Ajoie | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 21:47 | 5 |
Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ National League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
National League (Play Out: )
