Result
0:1 penalties
08/03/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Play Offs - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Premiere, SporTV, TV Globo |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 0.80 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (267/329) | 86% (357/417) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 0.80 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.10 | 0.71 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (267/329) | 86% (357/417) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (14/35) | 53% (20/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (44/65) | 75% (81/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.91 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.10 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 21', Rene 🟨,
- 44', Serna K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 56', Acosta L. 🟨,
- 62', Samuel Lino 🟨,
- 64', Carrascal J. ↓, Lucas Paqueta ↑,
- 64', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
- 67', Jorginho 🟨,
- 73', Pedro ↓, Plata G. ↑,
- 76', Samuel Xavier ↓, Guga ↑,
- 76', Rene ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
- 76', Serna K. ↓, Savarino J. ↑,
- 85', Hercules ↓, Otavio ↑,
- 85', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 86', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
- 90+2', Canobbio A. 🟨,
- Penalties (4 - 5)
- 1, Jorginho (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, PH Ganso (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Luiz Araujo (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Savarino J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Everton (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Guga (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Leo Pereira (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Guilherme Arana (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Lucas Paqueta (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, John Kennedy (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Leo Ortiz (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Otavio (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Fluminense
24.1% | Draw
31.6% | Flamengo
44.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fluminense's form might have worsened.Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+6.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
Fluminense - Flamengo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.83 ↑
(2.93) |
2.92 ↓
(3.15) |
2.09 ↓
(2.36) |
8.4%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 2.
- Fluminense is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Flamengo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Flamengo could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:20. (average 0.9:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Flamengo?
Fluminense has won 6 of their last 18 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Flamengo won against Fluminense?
Flamengo has won 7 of their last 18 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Flamengo were as follows:
25.01.2026
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
2:1
19.11.2025
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
2:1
20.07.2025
Flamengo
-
Fluminense
1:0
12.03.2025
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
1:2
08.02.2025
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
0:0
Latest results of Fluminense
Latest results of Flamengo
Draw
Taca Guanabara - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Bangu | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Vasco | Volta Redonda | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Botafogo RJ | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Madureira | Boavista | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Vasco | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Madureira | 8 : 0, 3 : 0 |
Final| 1 | Fluminense | Flamengo RJ | 0 : 1 |
