Result
2:1
18/10/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 1
- Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 1.20 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (207/283) | 83% (282/338) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 1.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (207/283) | 83% (282/338) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 26% (15/57) | 61% (35/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (34/54) | 67% (66/98) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/27) | 46% (11/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.36 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (5/9) | 60% (3/5) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 26 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | -0.48 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 2', 0 - 1, Luna D. ⚽, Gomez L. (A),
- 11', 1 - 1, Dos Santos J. (Pen),
- 15', Larotonda C. 🟨,
- 27', Bentaberry B. 🟥,
- 32', Nardelli G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Larotonda C. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
- 63', 2 - 1, Dos Santos J. ⚽, Gracia A. (A),
- 66', Gracia A. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
- 75', Dos Santos J. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
- 75', Ona C. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
- 75', Nardelli G. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
- 75', Luna D. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
- 83', Gomez L. 🟨,
- 85', Mina G. 🟨,
- 88', Ibarra R. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
- 90', Orejuela C. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa
52.9% | Draw
26.6% | Vinotinto
20.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.77 ↑
(1.66) |
3.53 ↑
(3.5) |
4.47 ↓
(4.98) |
7.3%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- Mushuc Runa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Vinotinto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Mushuc Runa is the team to beat.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Vinotinto?
Mushuc Runa has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Mushuc Runa?
Vinotinto has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto were as follows:
13.07.2025
Vinotinto
-
Mushuc Runa
1:1
14.03.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Vinotinto
1:2
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
Placement Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 39:34 | 5 | 49 |
| 8 | Emelec | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 34:35 | -1 | 49 |
| 9 | Aucas | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 42:45 | -3 | 45 |
| 10 | Macara | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 39:34 | 5 | 44 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 36:50 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Delfin | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 28:49 | -21 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )
