Ertis Pavlodar vs Shakhter Karagandy – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Kazakh First Division Ertis Pavlodar - Shakhter Karagandy
Result
3:1
01/08/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • First League - Round 16

Match Stats

Yellow Cards
13

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 7', 1 - 0, Tungyshbaev E. , Buribaev N. (A),
  • 33', Vasiljev V. 🟨,
  • 42', 2 - 0, Agimanov T. , Buribaev N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Israilov A. , Saidov E. ,
  • 46', Mukhametzhanov U. , Litosh A. ,
  • 63', Fedin M. , Kikbaev M. ,
  • 64', Torebek T. , Nyrkov D. ,
  • 64', Buribaev N. , Kenesov A. ,
  • 66', Galkin M. , Nusip A. ,
  • 75', 2 - 1, Kalybayev D. ,
  • 77', Altynkhan A. , Sagnaev S. ,
  • 80', Shymyrkhan S. 🟨,
  • 88', Zaynetdinov D. 🟨,
  • 89', 3 - 1, Tungyshbaev E. , Vasiljev V. (A),
  • 90+1', Litosh A. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Tungyshbaev E. , Gerasimov M. ,
  • 90+3', Vomenko V. , Esimov R. ,

Chances of winning


Ertis Pavlodar
60.4%
Draw
21%
Shakhter Karagandy
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.8% 26% 21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8% 25.1% 20.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ertis Pavlodar's performance.
  • Shakhter Karagandy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ertis Pavlodar that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhter Karagandy than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
  • Ertis Pavlodar - Shakhter Karagandy Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.57
    (1.7)
    4.51
    (3.45)
    5.13
    (4.25)
    5.4%
    (11.3%)
    Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 and 4).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 1.
    • Ertis is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Shakhter Karagandy has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Ertis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Ertis is a strong favorite.
    • We predict that Ertis will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.5:0.9).
    Latest results of Ertis Pavlodar
    Latest results of Shakhter Karagandy