Result
1:2
22/09/2025 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Percentage |
|---|
| 59% | 63% |
| 1st Serve Points Won |
|---|
| 60% (35/58) | 67% (38/57) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won |
|---|
| 38% (15/40) | 59% (20/34) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 67% (6/9) |
| 1st Return Points Won |
|---|
| 33% (19/57) | 40% (23/58) |
| 2nd Return Points Won |
|---|
| 41% (14/34) | 63% (25/40) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 57% (8/14) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 51% (50/98) | 64% (58/91) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 36% (33/91) | 49% (48/98) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 44% (83/189) | 56% (106/189) |
| Last 10 Balls |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Match Points Saved |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Service Games Won |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 77% (10/13) |
| Return Games Won |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 57% (8/14) |
| Total Games Won |
|---|
| 33% (9/27) | 67% (18/27) |
Chances of winning
Luca Nardi
26.8% | Matteo Arnaldi
73.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Nardi's form might have worsened.Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+11.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Nardi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-11.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.61 ↑
(2.75) |
|
1.32 ↓
(1.41) |
3.5%
(7.3%) | |
Preview Facts
- Nardi is ranked ATP: 85. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 73.
- Nardi has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arnaldi is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Nardi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Arnaldi is a strong favorite.
- In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Luca Nardi won against Matteo Arnaldi?
Luca Nardi has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Arnaldi won against Luca Nardi?
Matteo Arnaldi has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi were as follows:
Latest results of Luca Nardi
Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi
Draw
Singles - Main1/16-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Baez S. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Bergs Z. | Tabilo A. | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Thompson J. | Nakashima B. | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Fucsovics M. (Q) | Tiafoe F. (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Ruud C. (4) | Mochizuki S. (WC) | 2 : 1 |
| 6 | Munar J. | Berrettini M. | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Dzumhur D. | Vukic A. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 8 | Altmaier D. | Shapovalov D. (7) | 2 : 0 |
| 9 | Humbert U. (6) | Brooksby J. (PR) | 0 : 2 |
| 10 | Nishioka Y. (WC) | Darderi L. | 0 : 2 |
| 11 | Michelsen A. | Quinn E. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 12 | Medjedovic H. | Rune H. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 13 | Machac T. (5) | Shimabukuro S. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 14 | Giron M. | Korda S. | 1 : 2 |
| 15 | Watanuki Y. (WC) | Borges N. | 1 : 2 |
| 16 | Diallo G. | Fritz T. (2) | 1 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Bergs Z. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Nakashima B. | Fucsovics M. | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Ruud C. (4) | Berrettini M. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Vukic A. | Altmaier D. | 2 : 0 |
| 5 | Brooksby J. | Darderi L. | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Quinn E. | Rune H. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Shimabukuro S. | Korda S. | 0 : 2 |
| 8 | Borges N. | Fritz T. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Nakashima B. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Ruud C. (4) | Vukic A. | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Brooksby J. | Rune H. (3) | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Korda S. | Fritz T. (2) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Ruud C. (4) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Brooksby J. | Fritz T. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Final| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Fritz T. (2) | 2 : 0 |
