Result
2:1
05/11/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- AFC Champions League 2 - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Azam Sports 3 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD |
 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport |
 China | iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | SportKlub 1 |
 India | FanCode, FanCode, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 3 |
 Ukraine | Sport 2, Sport 3 |
 World | Sport 2 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.12 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (363/453) | 77% (282/367) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.12 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 0.73 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (363/453) | 77% (282/367) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (25/64) | 42% (19/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (56/89) | 63% (79/126) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 8% (1/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.34 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (14/21) | 64% (14/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.27 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 7', 1 - 0, Abdulkareem H. ⚽,
- 34', Kadhim H. F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 53', 2 - 0, Ibrahim (Pen),
- 56', Haghnazari S. ↓, Gafurov M. ↑,
- 56', Dehghani R. ↓, Komolafe P. ↑,
- 59', Gafurov M. 🟨,
- 64', 2 - 1, Juraboev A. (Pen),
- 67', Kadhim H. F. ↓, Bitang C. ↑,
- 68', Bitang C. 🟨,
- 78', Abdulkareem H. ↓, Mohammad M. ↑,
- 78', Qasim M. ↓, Bani Hani R. ↑,
- 79', Ismael D. ↓, Mahdi Al Saedi S. M. ↑,
- 82', Rakhimov M. ↓, Islomov T. ↑,
- 85', Safarov M. 🟨,
- 87', Soirov R. ↓, Kamolov R. ↑,
- 88', Ibrahim ↓, Jabbar M. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/2v3zd9n2
Chances of winning
Al-Zawraa
60.4% | Draw
22.5% | Istiklol Dushanbe
17.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Zawraa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Zawraa's performance.Istiklol Dushanbe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Zawraa than the current prediction. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istiklol Dushanbe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
Al-Zawraa - Istiklol Dushanbe Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↓
(1.69) |
4.13 ↑
(4.02) |
5.45 ↑
(4.21) |
7.4%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Al-Zawraa - Istiklol Dushanbe?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Al-Zawraa (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Al-Zawraa (1.78) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Al-Zawraa will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Al-Zawraa (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Istiklol (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Al-Zawraa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Istiklol is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Al-Zawraa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Istiklol has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Al-Zawraa is a strong favorite.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Al-Zawraa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Zawraa won against Istiklol Dushanbe?
Al-Zawraa has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Istiklol Dushanbe won against Al-Zawraa?
Istiklol Dushanbe has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Al-Zawraa - Istiklol Dushanbe were as follows:
22.10.2025
Istiklol Dushanbe
-
Al-Zawraa
2:1
Latest results of Al-Zawraa
Latest results of Istiklol Dushanbe
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Al Zawraa | Al Wasl | 2 : 4, 3 : 2 |
| 2 | Arkadag | Al Nassr | 0 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Sepahan | Al Ahli Doha | 0 : 1, 2 : 2 |
| 4 | Esteghlal F.C. | Al Hussein | 2 : 3, 0 : 1 |
| 5 | Pohang | Gamba Osaka | 1 : 2, 1 : 1 |
| 6 | Ratchaburi | Persib Bandung | 0 : 1, 3 : 0 |
| 7 | Bangkok Utd | Macarthur FC | 2 : 2, 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Cong An Ha Noi | Tampines | 1 : 3, 0 : 3 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Al Wasl | Al Nassr | |
| 2 | Al Ahli Doha | Al Hussein | |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | Ratchaburi | |
| 4 | Bangkok Utd | Tampines | |
Semi-finalsFinal
