Mali vs Senegal, Africa Cup of Nations – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Africa Cup of Nations
Result
0:1
09/01/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Africa Cup of Nations - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
afghanistanAfghanistanTolo TV
africaAfricaAfroSport TV Africa, Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ CAN, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport Maximo 360
andorraAndorrabeIN Sports 1
angolaAngolaTPA 2
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
austriaAustriaDAZN
brazilBrazilBandSports
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
cameroonCameroonCanal 2 International
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chadChadTele Tchad
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaWin play, Win Sports
cote-d-ivoireCote-d-ivoireNCI, RTI 3
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 1
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
greeceGreeceERT 2, ERT Sports 2
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, Vidio
israelIsrael5 PLUS Israel
italyItalySportitalia
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSport+
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3, ART Sport 2
laosLaosbeIN Connect
madagascarMadagascarMATV
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
maliMaliORTM
mauritiusMauritiusMBC 11
mexicoMexicoClaro Sports, FOX One, Marca Claro
moroccoMoroccoArryadia TNT, SNRT Live
mozambiqueMozambiqueTV Miramar
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 5, Ziggo Sport
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Football Plus
norwayNorwayVG+
portugalPortugalSport TV2
republic-of-the-congoRepublic-of-the-congoTele Congo
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
sloveniaSloveniaSportKlub 1
south-africaSouth-africaSABC 2, SABC Plus, SuperSport PSL
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
turkeyTurkeyExxen
ugandaUgandaUBC TV
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdom4Seven, Channel 4, E4
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
zambiaZambiaZNBC 1

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.131.55
Ball possession
35%65%
Total shots
819
Shots on target
28
Big chances
22
Corner kicks
57
Passes
72% (195/269)88% (437/499)
Yellow cards
35
Red Cards
10
Expected goals (xG)
1.131.55
xG on target (xGOT)
0.952.46
Total shots
819
Shots on target
28
Shots off target
35
Blocked shots
36
Shots inside the box
511
Shots outside the box
38
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
22
Corner kicks
57
Touches in opposition box
1322
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
31
Free kicks
148
Passes
72% (195/269)88% (437/499)
Long passes
24% (12/49)62% (23/37)
Passes in final third
60% (44/73)80% (125/156)
Crosses
9% (1/11)18% (3/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.230.64
Throw ins
1715
Fouls
814
Tackles
45% (5/11)50% (7/14)
Duels won
3945
Clearances
2634
Interceptions
206
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper saves
72
xGOT faced
2.460.95
Goals prevented
1.460.95

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 23', Bissouma Y. 🟨,
  • 27', 0 - 1, Ndiaye I. ⚽,
  • 29', Gueye P. 🟨,
  • 45+3', Bissouma Y. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 55', Haidara A. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
  • 56', Diarra H. 🟨,
  • 61', Diallo H. 🟨,
  • 62', Diarra H. ↓, Ciss P. ↑,
  • 62', Gueye P. ↓, Camara L. ↑,
  • 69', Dieng A. ↓, Diakite G. ↑,
  • 75', Ndiaye I. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
  • 75', Diallo H. ↓, Ndiaye C. ↑,
  • 82', Sangare M. ↓, Doumbia K. ↑,
  • 82', Sinayoko L. ↓, Toure E. B. ↑,
  • 82', Coulibaly L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
  • 83', Mbaye I. 🟨,
  • 90', Traore H. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Koulibaly K. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/y7f3pymx

Chances of winning


Mali
14.5%		Draw
27.8%		Senegal
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
18.6% 29.1% 52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3% 28.7% 53.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
  • Senegal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Senegal's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mali than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Senegal than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
    •

    Mali - Senegal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 6.44 ↑
    (5.08)    		 3.42 ↑
    (3.26)    		 1.65 ↓
    (1.81)    		 5.5%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Mali - Senegal?
  • Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Mali will win (votes: 2 - 4.4%). Senegal will win (votes: 31 - 68.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 26.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Senegal: 55.4% – 82.4%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 - Mali (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Senegal will win (16 of 21 users predict this - 76.19%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 22 high ROI users predict this event. Mali (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Senegal (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Mali has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Senegal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, Senegal is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Mali: Coulibaly W. (Red Card) Diarra G. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Senegal: Camara I. (Muscle Injury) Diao A. (Thigh Injury) Niang O. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Mali: Coulibaly L. (Injury) Niakate S. (Injury)
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mali won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).
    Latest results of Mali
    03.01.2026 Mali - Tunisia 2:1 ✺
    29.12.2025 Comoros - Mali 0:0 ✺
    26.12.2025 Morocco - Mali 1:1 ✺
    22.12.2025 Mali - Zambia 1:1 ✺
    18.11.2025 Jordan - Mali 0:0 ✺
    Latest results of Senegal
    03.01.2026 Senegal - Sudan 3:1 ✺
    30.12.2025 Benin - Senegal 0:3 ✺
    27.12.2025 Senegal - D.R. Congo 1:1 ✺
    23.12.2025 Senegal - Botswana 3:0 ✺
    15.11.2025 Brazil - Senegal 2:0 ✺
    Draw
    2027

    Final
    1DjiboutiSouth Sudan
    2ChadBurundi
    3SomaliaMauritius
    4SeychellesLesotho
    5EritreaEswatini
    6Sao Tome and PrincipeEthiopia
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