Mert Alkaya vs Ergi Kirkin – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:0
02/03/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Fujairah - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Match Stats

Aces
53
Double Faults
63
1st serve percentage
36%53%
1st serve points won
82% (23/28)76% (22/29)
2nd serve points won
50% (25/50)38% (10/26)
Break Points Saved
90% (9/10)0% (0/3)
1st return points won
28% (8/29)25% (7/28)
2nd return points won
62% (16/26)50% (25/50)
Break Points Converted
100% (3/3)10% (1/10)
Winners
2817
Unforced errors
2825
Net points won
64% (14/22)79% (11/14)
Service Points Won
62% (48/78)58% (31/53)
Return Points Won
42% (22/53)38% (30/78)
Total Points Won
53% (70/131)47% (61/131)
Last 10 balls
64
Match points saved
00
Service games won
90% (9/10)67% (6/9)
Return games won
33% (3/9)10% (1/10)
Total games won
63% (12/19)37% (7/19)

Chances of winning


Mert Alkaya
54.8%
Ergi Kirkin
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
64.5% 35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8% 33.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mert Alkaya's form might have worsened.
  • Ergi Kirkin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ergi Kirkin's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+12%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mert Alkaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ergi Kirkin than the current prediction. (-12%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ergi Kirkin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Mert Alkaya - Ergi Kirkin Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.71
    (1.45)

    2.08
    (2.63)
    6.5%
    (7%)
    Preview Facts
    • Alkaya is ranked ATP: 381. Kirkin is ranked ATP: 581.
    • Alkaya is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • In recent matches, Kirkin has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Alkaya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alkaya won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mert Alkaya - Ergi Kirkin were as follows:
    09.01.2026 Ergi Kirkin - Mert Alkaya 0:2
    Latest results of Mert Alkaya
    Latest results of Ergi Kirkin
    Draw
    Singles - Qualification

    Semi-finals
    1Matsuoka H. (1)Murtaza M. (WC)2 : 0
    2Ostapenkov D. (Alt)Matsuda R. (12)2 : 1
    3Alcantara F. C. (Alt)Karki R. (JR)0 : 2
    4Chopra K. (WC)Orlov V. (11)0 : 2
    5Wu Tung-Lin (3)Betov S. (WC)2 : 0
    6Lopez Morillo I.Takahashi Y. (10)2 : 1
    7Alkaya M. (4)Kirkin E.2 : 0
    8Nakagawa S. (Alt)Kumasaka T. (8)0 : 2
    9Erel Y. (5)McDonald N. (WC)2 : 0
    10Kusuhara Y.Gengel M. (7)0 : 2
    11Caniato C. A. (6)Ivashka I. (Alt)0 : 2
    12Balshaw F.Huang T. (9)2 : 0

    Final
    1Matsuoka H. (1)Ostapenkov D.1 : 1
    2Karki R.Orlov V. (11)0 : 2
    3Wu Tung-Lin (3)Lopez Morillo I.2 : 0
    4Alkaya M. (4)Kumasaka T. (8)
    5Erel Y. (5)Gengel M. (7)0 : 0
    6Ivashka I.Balshaw F.