Hayato Matsuoka vs Daniil Ostapenkov – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
Canceled
04/03/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Fujairah - Qualification, hard - Final

Match Stats

Aces
55
Double Faults
23
1st serve percentage
69%57%
1st serve points won
60% (32/53)77% (27/35)
2nd serve points won
54% (13/24)46% (12/26)
Break Points Saved
43% (3/7)57% (4/7)
1st return points won
23% (8/35)40% (21/53)
2nd return points won
54% (14/26)46% (11/24)
Break Points Converted
43% (3/7)57% (4/7)
Winners
1718
Unforced errors
3837
Net points won
71% (5/7)67% (4/6)
Service Points Won
58% (45/77)64% (39/61)
Return Points Won
36% (22/61)42% (32/77)
Total Points Won
49% (67/138)51% (71/138)
Last 10 balls
28
Match points saved
00
Service games won
64% (7/11)73% (8/11)
Return games won
27% (3/11)36% (4/11)
Total games won
45% (10/22)55% (12/22)

Chances of winning


Hayato Matsuoka
63.4%
Daniil Ostapenkov
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55.8% 44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9% 49.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hayato Matsuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hayato Matsuoka's performance.
  • Daniil Ostapenkov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniil Ostapenkov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-12.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hayato Matsuoka that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (+12.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Ostapenkov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Hayato Matsuoka - Daniil Ostapenkov Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.46
    (1.65)

    2.53
    (2.08)
    7.8%
    (9%)
    What is the prediction for Hayato Matsuoka - Daniil Ostapenkov?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Matsuoka will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Ostapenkov will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Matsuoka: 45%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Matsuoka (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 368. Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 754.
    • Both players have been playing unpredictably.
    • Ostapenkov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Matsuoka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Hayato Matsuoka
    Latest results of Daniil Ostapenkov
    Draw
    Singles - Qualification

    Semi-finals
    1Matsuoka H. (1)Murtaza M. (WC)2 : 0
    2Ostapenkov D. (Alt)Matsuda R. (12)2 : 1
    3Alcantara F. C. (Alt)Karki R. (JR)0 : 2
    4Chopra K. (WC)Orlov V. (11)0 : 2
    5Wu Tung-Lin (3)Betov S. (WC)2 : 0
    6Lopez Morillo I.Takahashi Y. (10)2 : 1
    7Alkaya M. (4)Kirkin E.2 : 0
    8Nakagawa S. (Alt)Kumasaka T. (8)0 : 2
    9Erel Y. (5)McDonald N. (WC)2 : 0
    10Kusuhara Y.Gengel M. (7)0 : 2
    11Caniato C. A. (6)Ivashka I. (Alt)0 : 2
    12Balshaw F.Huang T. (9)2 : 0

    Final
    1Matsuoka H. (1)Ostapenkov D.1 : 1
    2Karki R.Orlov V. (11)0 : 2
    3Wu Tung-Lin (3)Lopez Morillo I.2 : 0
    4Alkaya M. (4)Kumasaka T. (8)
    5Erel Y. (5)Gengel M. (7)0 : 0
    6Ivashka I.Balshaw F.