Felix Gill vs Pablo Carreno-Busta – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:2
19/03/2026 at 11:50 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - 1/8-finals

Match Stats

Aces
32
Double Faults
01
1st serve percentage
76%75%
1st serve points won
57% (40/70)74% (45/61)
2nd serve points won
64% (14/22)60% (12/20)
Break Points Saved
7/101/2
1st return points won
26% (16/61)43% (30/70)
2nd return points won
40% (8/20)36% (8/22)
Break Points Converted
1/23/10
Winners
2531
Unforced errors
3635
Net points won
69% (9/13)71% (12/17)
Service Points Won
59% (54/91)70% (57/81)
Return Points Won
30% (24/81)41% (37/91)
Total Points Won
45% (78/172)55% (94/172)
Last 10 balls
28
Match points saved
00
Service games won
77% (10/13)93% (13/14)
Return games won
7% (1/14)23% (3/13)
Total games won
41% (11/27)59% (16/27)

Chances of winning


Felix Gill
29.6%
Pablo Carreno-Busta
70.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.4% 68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7% 65.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Felix Gill has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
  • Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felix Gill than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Felix Gill, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Felix Gill - Pablo Carreno-Busta Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.07
    (2.93)

    1.33
    (1.34)
    7.9%
    (8.8%)
    Preview Facts
    • Gill is ranked ATP: 252. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 117.
    • Right now, both players are showing solid form.
    • Carreno Busta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Carreno Busta is a strong favorite.
    • We predict that Carreno Busta will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Felix Gill
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1De Jong J. (1)Hassan B.2 : 1
    2Wessels L. (Q)Houkes M.0 : 2
    3Llamas Ruiz P.Jorda Sanchis D. (Q/LL)2 : 0
    4Damas M.Choinski J. (6)1 : 2
    5Ofner S. (4)Ferreira Silva F. (Q)2 : 0
    6Brancaccio R. (WC)Sanchez Quilez A. (WC)2 : 0
    7Butvilas E.Kukushkin M.0 : 2
    8Sanchez Izquierdo N.Carballes Baena R. (8)0 : 2
    9Pellegrino A. (7)Martin Tiffon P.2 : 0
    10Engel J.Shelbayh A. (Alt)2 : 1
    11Gill F. (Q)Pieczonka F. (Q)2 : 1
    12Sanchez Jover C. (Alt)Carreno-Busta P. (3)0 : 2
    13Moller E. (5)Coppejans K.0 : 2
    14Gakhov I.Negritu Ch. (Q)0 : 2
    15Bailly G. A.Purtseladze S. (LL)2 : 1
    16Moro Canas A.Gaubas V. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1De Jong J. (1)Houkes M.2 : 0
    2Llamas Ruiz P.Choinski J. (6)2 : 1
    3Ofner S. (4)Brancaccio R.2 : 0
    4Kukushkin M.Carballes Baena R. (8)1 : 2
    5Pellegrino A. (7)Engel J.2 : 1
    6Gill F.Carreno-Busta P. (3)1 : 2
    7Coppejans K.Negritu Ch.2 : 0
    8Bailly G. A.Moro Canas A.2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1De Jong J. (1)Llamas Ruiz P.2 : 0
    2Ofner S. (4)Carballes Baena R. (8)1 : 2
    3Pellegrino A. (7)Carreno-Busta P. (3)0 : 2
    4Coppejans K.Bailly G. A.2 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1De Jong J. (1)Carballes Baena R. (8)1 : 2
    2Carreno-Busta P. (3)Coppejans K.2 : 0

    Final
    1Carballes Baena R. (8)Carreno-Busta P. (3)0 : 2