Leinster vs Toulon – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

02/05/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Chances of winning


Leinster
72.9%
Draw
3.5%
Toulon
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
74.5% 4% 21.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • Toulon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • Leinster - Toulon Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.26
    (1.24)
    26.02
    (23.08)
    3.98
    (4.28)
    8.6%
    (8.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 56.50
    • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)
    Preview Facts
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Toulon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Leinster is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 54:98. (average 10.8:19.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:20. (average 8:10).
    Latest results of Leinster
    25.04.2026 Benetton Treviso - Leinster 29:26
    17.04.2026 Ulster - Leinster 21:29
    11.04.2026 Leinster - Sale Sharks 43:13
    05.04.2026 Leinster - Edinburgh 49:31
    27.03.2026 Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets 36:19
    Latest results of Toulon
    25.04.2026 Toulon - Aviron Bayonnais 52:26
    18.04.2026 Montauban - Toulon 22:47
    11.04.2026 Glasgow Warriors - Toulon 19:22
    04.04.2026 Toulon - Stormers 28:27
    28.03.2026 Perpignan - Toulon 34:20
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Bordeaux BeglesLeicester Tigers64 : 14
    2Stade ToulousainBristol59 : 26
    3BathSaracens31 : 22
    4Northampton SaintsCastres Olympique49 : 41
    5LeinsterEdinburgh49 : 31
    6HarlequinsSale Sharks17 : 26
    7Glasgow WarriorsBulls25 : 21
    8RC ToulonnaisStormers28 : 27

    Quarter-finals
    1Bordeaux BeglesStade Toulousain30 : 15
    2BathNorthampton Saints43 : 41
    3LeinsterSale Sharks43 : 13
    4Glasgow WarriorsRC Toulonnais19 : 22

    Semi-finals
    1Bordeaux BeglesBath
    2LeinsterRC Toulonnais

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2