Toronto Marlies vs Rochester Americans – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Hockey AHL
Result
6:4
03/01/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • AHL
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaFlohockey

Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2835
Shooting PCT
21.43% (6/28)11.43% (4/35)
Goalkeeper Saves
3122
Saves PCT
88.57% (31/35)78.57% (22/28)
Penalties
51
PIM
102
Power-play Goals
01
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
0% (0/1)20% (1/5)
Pen. Killing PCT
80% (4/5)100% (1/1)
Empty Net Goals
00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (1 - 2)
  • 09:15, 0 - 1, Novikov N. (G), Laaouan N. (A), Joshua J. (A2)
  • 12:34, 1 - 1, Groulx B. (G), Lettieri V. (A), Smith B. (A2)
  • 13:20, 1 - 2, Rosen I. (G), Wahlberg A. (A),
  • 2nd Period (4 - 1)
  • 01:29, 2 - 2, Villeneuve W. (G), Boyd T. (A), Barbolini M. (A2)
  • 08:21, 2 - 3, Fiddler-Schultz R. (G), Meyer C. (A),
  • 10:33, 3 - 3, Nylander A. (G), Valis B. (A),
  • 13:25, 4 - 3, Nylander A. (G), Rifai M. (A), Thrun H. (A2)
  • 17:48, 5 - 3, Valis B. (G), Groulx B. (A), Akhtyamov A. (A2)
  • 3rd Period (1 - 1)
  • 01:05, 5 - 4, Kuntar T. (G), Fiddler-Schultz R. (A), Jones Z. (A2)
  • 03:52, 6 - 4, Johnstone M. (G), Pare C. (A), Thrun H. (A2)

Chances of winning


Toronto Marlies
32.2%		Draw
22.3%		Rochester Americans
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.4% 22.5% 45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3% 22.6% 45.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toronto Marlies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • Rochester Americans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Marlies than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochester Americans than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
    •

    Toronto Marlies - Rochester Americans Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.84 ↓
    (2.87)    		 4.09 ↓
    (4.13)    		 2.04 ↓
    (2.06)    		 8.8%
    (7.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
    What is the prediction for Toronto Marlies - Rochester Americans?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.
    • Toronto is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Rochester has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Rochester may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Rochester has had a series of home games.
    • Rochester could have a small edge in this match.
    • We predict that Toronto will win today's game, with odds of 2.85.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 64:61. (average 3.2:3.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:28. (average 3.6:2.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toronto Marlies - Rochester Americans were as follows:
    11.10.2025 Toronto Marlies - Rochester Americans 4:1
    10.10.2025 Rochester Americans - Toronto Marlies 4:3
    19.04.2025 Toronto Marlies - Rochester Americans 3:2
    18.04.2025 Rochester Americans - Toronto Marlies 0:3
    22.02.2025 Rochester Americans - Toronto Marlies 1:0
    Latest results of Toronto Marlies
    01.01.2026 Toronto Marlies - Syracuse Crunch 2:1
    30.12.2025 Cleveland Monsters - Toronto Marlies 1:2 ✺
    27.12.2025 Utica Comets - Toronto Marlies 3:4 ✺
    26.12.2025 Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators 3:2 ✺
    21.12.2025 Belleville Senators - Toronto Marlies 8:4
    Latest results of Rochester Americans
    29.12.2025 Cleveland Monsters - Rochester Americans 3:4 ✺
    27.12.2025 Rochester Americans - Cleveland Monsters 3:4
    19.12.2025 Rochester Americans - Belleville Senators 3:2
    17.12.2025 Rochester Americans - Utica Comets 2:3 ✺
    13.12.2025 Rochester Americans - Lehigh Valley Phantoms 1:2 ✺
    AHL Table
    2025/26

    Atlantic Division
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Providence Bruins553211111182:11887
    2Wilkes-Barre/Scranton57315714189:15079
    3Charlotte Checkers56267518188:15771
    4Hershey Bears57206823164:17760
    5Bridgeport Islanders57204825170:17856
    6Lehigh Valley Phantoms56168626166:18854
    7Springfield Thunderbirds56193727151:19651
    8Hartford Wolf Pack55184627149:18550


    Central Division
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Grand Rapids Griffins5636749196:11190
    2Chicago Wolves532171213172:16768
    3Manitoba Moose51224619132:14358
    4Texas Stars54189423162:17158
    5Milwaukee Admirals54148725152:16551
    6Rockford IceHogs56155432152:19444
    7Iowa Wild54136530126:17043


    Pacific Division
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Ontario Reign56299216190:15178
    2Colorado Eagles55267814178:13974
    3San Jose Barracuda54259416188:16472
    4Bakersfield Condors572281017192:17870
    5Coachella Valley Firebirds55219520184:17065
    6San Diego Gulls552051218164:16162
    7Henderson Silver Knights532131019174:16858
    8Tucson Roadrunners551312822171:18258
    9Calgary Wranglers571091424152:20852
    10Abbotsford Canucks57138630132:19148


    North Division
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Laval Rocket592610518192:15777
    2Syracuse Crunch56323417184:13674
    3Cleveland Monsters561713719164:16767
    4Toronto Marlies56207920176:18063
    5Rochester Americans54195921166:16857
    6Belleville Senators58166828181:21452
    7Utica Comets56173927144:17949

          Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )

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