Result
1:1
21/01/2026 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.12 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (522/621) | 77% (310/402) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.12 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.03 | 0.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (522/621) | 77% (310/402) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (20/45) | 43% (32/74) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (124/169) | 58% (55/95) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/11) | 35% (6/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 1.12 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (14/21) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.56 | 2.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.44 | 1.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Weslley Patati ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
- 63', Jensen I. ↓, Daal R. ↑,
- 64', Hansson E. ↓, de Regt G. ↑,
- 65', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽,
- 68', de Regt G. 🟨,
- 76', Boogaard K. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
- 78', Dijkstra E. 🟨,
- 78', Bronkhorst I. ↓, Martens N. ↑,
- 78', Bergraaf J. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 78', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
- 81', 1 - 1, Jonathans M. ⚽, van Duinen M. (A),
- 84', de Wit M. ↓, Hornkamp J. ↑,
- 84', Dijkstra E. ↓, Maikuma S. ↑,
- 84', Schouten L. ↓, Carlen A. ↑,
- 86', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
- 90+3', Koopmeiners P. 🟨,
Chances of winning
AZ Alkmaar
70.9% | Draw
17.3% | Excelsior
11.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.33
(1.33) |
5.48 ↑
(5) |
8.15 ↑
(8) |
5.6%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Excelsior will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - AZ (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -2 - AZ (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. AZ (votes: 4 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 4.
- AZ is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Excelsior has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, AZ is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in AZ: Clasie J.
(Ankle Injury)
Kasius D.
(Injury)
Meerdink M.
(Groin Injury)
- There will not play in Excelsior: Middendorp S.
(Red Card)
Nadje C.
(Inactive)
Tielemans M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, AZ won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 48:25. (average 2.7:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:10. (average 2.9:1).
How many head-to-head matches has AZ Alkmaar won against Excelsior?
AZ Alkmaar has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior were as follows:
13.07.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
8:0
10.03.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
4:0
04.11.2023
Excelsior
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:1
10.02.2023
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
5:0
11.01.2023
Excelsior
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:4
Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 59:23 | 36 | 52 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 47:27 | 20 | 36 |
| 3 | Ajax | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 37:26 | 11 | 34 |
| 4 | Nijmegen | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 47:32 | 15 | 32 |
| 5 | Groningen | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27:22 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | Twente | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 7 | 29 |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 34:32 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Sparta Rotterdam | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24:34 | -10 | 29 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 31:30 | 1 | 24 |
| 10 | Utrecht | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 29:25 | 4 | 23 |
| 11 | Zwolle | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 25:40 | -15 | 23 |
| 12 | Sittard | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 28:33 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 30:33 | -3 | 21 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:35 | -15 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 21:33 | -12 | 17 |
| 16 | Telstar | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 24:32 | -8 | 16 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19:30 | -11 | 14 |
| 18 | Heracles | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 26:48 | -22 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
