Result
3:1
10/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.61 | 3.34 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 14.29% (3/21) | 4.17% (1/24) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 23 | 18 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 95.83% (23/24) | 85.71% (18/21) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 0 | 18 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/0) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (0/0) | 80% (4/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 23 | 27 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 46 | 54 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (3 - 0)
- 05:15, 1 - 0, Pakkila E. (G), Maatta J. (A), Tuhkala A. (A2)
- 05:34, Sertti L. (2 min),
- 06:35, 2 - 0, Saarela A. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
- 14:17, Wright C. (2 min),
- 19:43, 3 - 0, Pakkila E. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Lehtonen S. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 02:19, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
- 14:32, 3 - 1, Wright C. (G), Hakulinen A. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 0)
- 00:48, Hakulinen A. (Penalty Shot),
- 16:40, Wright C. (2 min),
Chances of winning
TPS
34.7% | Draw
25.7% | HPK
39.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
TPS - HPK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.7 ↑
(2.55) |
3.6
(3.6) |
2.35 ↓
(2.5) |
7.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 4.50
What is the prediction for TPS - HPK?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. TPS (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 13 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 4.
- TPS is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- HPK has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- TPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, TPS has had a series of away games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 59:38. (average 3:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 3.1:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against HPK?
TPS has won 13 of their last 18 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against TPS?
HPK has won 5 of their last 18 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - HPK were as follows:
16.01.2026
HPK
-
TPS
3:1
29.10.2025
TPS
-
HPK
1:0
09.09.2025
HPK
-
TPS
2:3
16.08.2025
TPS
-
HPK
2:0
17.01.2025
HPK
-
TPS
1:5
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
