Adelaide Lightning vs Sydney Flames – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
76:65
13/01/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • WNBL Women - Round 13
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustralia9Now, ESPN

Match Stats

Field goals attempts
5468
Field goals made
2322
Field goals %
42.59%32.35%
2-point field goals attempts
2933
2-point field goals made
1214
2-point field goals %
41.38%42.42%
3-point field goals attempts
2535
3-point field goals made
118
3-point field goals %
44%22.86%
Free throws attempts
2216
Free throws made
1913
Free throws %
86.4%81.3%
Offensive rebounds
614
Defensive rebounds
3425
Total rebounds
4039
Assists
1813
Blocks
42
Turnovers
1814
Steals
610
Personal fouls
2218

Chances of winning


Adelaide Lightning
64.8%
Sydney Flames
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
59.4% 40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8% 39.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Adelaide Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Adelaide Lightning's performance.
  • Sydney Flames has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sydney Flames might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide Lightning than the current prediction. (-4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Flames than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.43
    (1.56)

    2.64
    (2.28)
    7.8%
    (8.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 159.50
    • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)
    What is the prediction for Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -7.5, OT - Sydney (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -8, OT - Sydney (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -8.5, OT - Sydney (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Sydney (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 83:78.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 4.
    • Adelaide is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Sydney has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, Adelaide is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 1497:1367. (average 74.9:68.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 742:599. (average 74.2:59.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames were as follows:
    13.12.2025 Sydney Flames - Adelaide Lightning 75:94
    08.11.2025 Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames 88:71
    18.01.2025 Sydney Flames - Adelaide Lightning 84:60
    21.12.2024 Sydney Flames - Adelaide Lightning 73:86
    20.11.2024 Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames 78:54
    Latest results of Adelaide Lightning
    Latest results of Sydney Flames
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Semi-finals
    1Townsville W (1)Southside W (4)2 : 1
    2Perth Lynx W (2)Bendigo W (3)2 : 0

    Final
    1Townsville W (1)Perth Lynx W (2)1 : 0