Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian A-League Women
Result
1:0
04/01/2026 at 00:50 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • A-League Women - Round 11
  • Referee: Cooper I. (Aus)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaChannel 10, Paramount+
hong-kongHong-kongHOY TV
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 3
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.360.80
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
1113
Shots on target
77
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
32
Passes
74% (300/403)77% (295/381)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
1.360.80
xG on target (xGOT)
1.911.15
Total shots
1113
Shots on target
77
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
11
Shots inside the Box
68
Shots outside the Box
55
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
32
Touches in opposition box
1020
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
1017
Passes
74% (300/403)77% (295/381)
Long passes
24% (13/54)50% (17/34)
Passes in final third
62% (60/97)51% (41/80)
Crosses
13% (2/16)19% (4/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.860.42
Throw-ins
1835
Fouls
1710
Tackles
63% (10/16)40% (8/20)
Duels won
4254
Clearances
2928
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
76
xGOT faced
1.151.91
Goals prevented
1.150.91

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 47', 1 - 0, Condon E. ⚽, Dawber C. (A),
  • 50', Taranto A. 🟨,
  • 58', Gomez I. 🟨,
  • 60', Di Sipio I. ↓, Hughes B. ↑,
  • 61', Healy E. ↓, Hodgson I. ↑,
  • 62', Hodgson E. 🟨,
  • 72', Prakash A. ↓, Levin T. ↑,
  • 78', Condon E. ↓, Worts F. ↑,
  • 89', Thew B. ↓, Farrow M. ↑,
  • 90+4', Dawber C. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Adelaide United
44.6%		Draw
26.1%		Central Coast Mariners
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.4% 20.9% 20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64% 22.9% 18.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adelaide United's form might have worsened.
  • Central Coast Mariners has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Central Coast Mariners's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (+19.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adelaide United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (-10.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Central Coast Mariners, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.03 ↑
    (1.62)    		 3.47 ↓
    (4.53)    		 3.09 ↓
    (4.56)    		 10.5%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners?
  • Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Adelaide United will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Adelaide United (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Adelaide United (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Adelaide United (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In recent matches, Adelaide United has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Central Coast is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Adelaide United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Adelaide United could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners were as follows:
    01.11.2025 Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United 3:0
    08.03.2025 Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners 1:0
    04.01.2025 Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United 0:1
    03.03.2024 Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United 2:0
    20.10.2023 Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners 1:2
    Latest results of Adelaide United
    27.12.2025 Adelaide United - Western Sydney Wanderers 5:2
    21.12.2025 Perth Glory - Adelaide United 1:0
    17.12.2025 Melbourne City - Adelaide United Postponed
    13.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 1:0 ✺
    07.12.2025 Adelaide United - Brisbane Roar 1:3
    Latest results of Central Coast Mariners
    31.12.2025 Central Coast Mariners - Brisbane Roar 3:2
    27.12.2025 Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory 3:3
    20.12.2025 Canberra United - Central Coast Mariners 1:1
    14.12.2025 Western Sydney Wanderers - Central Coast Mariners 1:2
    07.12.2025 Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets 4:1 ✺
    Australian A-League Women Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Melbourne City W1693429:171230
    2Canberra W1683525:17827
    3Adelaide W1582519:17226
    4Wellington Phoenix W1574429:131625
    5Perth W1672717:22-523
    6Melbourne Victory W1764724:22222
    7Central Coast Mariners W1664625:25022
    8Brisbane Roar W1664626:31-522
    9Newcastle W1652921:28-717
    10WS Wanderers W1744916:31-1516
    11Sydney W1636714:22-815

          Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)

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