AEK Larnaca vs AZ Alkmaar – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
4:0
02/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 1
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
denmarkDenmarkDisney+
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceCanal+ Live 13
germanyGermanyRTL+
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 9
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
icelandIcelandViaplay
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 2
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 16, Movistar Plus+
swedenSwedenDisney+
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 13
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.730.48
Ball Possession
69%31%
Total shots
226
Shots on target
102
Big Chances
71
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
92% (519/566)74% (194/263)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.730.48
xG on target (xGOT)
4.550.13
Total shots
226
Shots on target
102
Shots off target
102
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
155
Shots outside the Box
71
Hit the Woodwork
20
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
71
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
4113
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
813
Passes
92% (519/566)74% (194/263)
Long passes
74% (23/31)33% (18/54)
Passes in final third
87% (189/218)58% (49/84)
Crosses
34% (12/35)17% (1/6)
Expected assists (xA)
2.620.75
Throw-ins
2210
Fouls
138
Tackles
71% (10/14)73% (11/15)
Duels won
4347
Clearances
1636
Interceptions
97
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
26
xGOT faced
0.134.55
Goals prevented
0.130.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 2', Penetra 🟥,
  • 25', 1 - 0, Rubio W. ⚽, Bajic R. (A),
  • 26', Daal R. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
  • 28', Milicevic H. 🟨,
  • 33', Goes W. 🟨,
  • 34', Weslley Patati 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 54', 2 - 0, Bajic R. ⚽, Ledes Gustavo (A),
  • 57', Ekpolo G. ↓, Miramon ↑,
  • 64', Mijnans S. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
  • 64', Meerdink M. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
  • 64', Goes W. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
  • 68', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
  • 72', Rubio W. ↓, Ivanovic D. ↑,
  • 72', Bajic R. ↓, Naoum G. ↑,
  • 72', Kasius D. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
  • 73', 3 - 0, Ivanovic D. ⚽, Chacon Y. (A),
  • 83', 4 - 0, Rohden M. ⚽,
  • 84', Chacon Y. ↓, Mathias Gonzalez ↑,
  • 84', Pons P. ↓, Gerasimou D. ↑,
  • 90+2', Gerasimou D. 🟨,

Chances of winning


AEK Larnaca
34.1%		Draw
29%		AZ Alkmaar
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
26.9% 27.6% 45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8% 26.5% 47.4%

AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 2.96 ↓
(3.47)		 3.53 ↑
(3.38)		 2.87 ↑
(2.05)		 -3%
(7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar?
  • Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). AZ will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 61.6% – 91.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 2 - 28.6%). AZ (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • AEK Larnaca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • AEK Larnaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • AZ will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Angielski K. (Muscle Injury) Cabrera E. (Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury) Komar K. (Broken Hand) Saborit E. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Parrott T. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in AZ: Koopmeiners P. (Injury) Mastoras E. (Injury) Smit K. (Hip Injury)
    • The teams have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of AEK Larnaca
    27.09.2025 Krasava Ypsonas - AEK Larnaca 0:4
    22.09.2025 AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol 3:2 ✺
    17.09.2025 Omonia - AEK Larnaca 1:0 ✺
    13.09.2025 Anorthosis - AEK Larnaca 1:1 ✺
    31.08.2025 AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
    28.09.2025 NEC Nijmegen - AZ Alkmaar 2:1 ✺
    24.09.2025 AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle 2:2 ✺
    21.09.2025 AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord 3:3 ✺
    14.09.2025 Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar 1:2 ✺
    31.08.2025 NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar 0:1 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Strasbourg651011:5616
    2Rakow64209:2714
    3AEK Athens641114:7713
    4Sparta Prague641110:3713
    5Rayo Vallecano641113:7613
    6Shakhtar Donetsk641110:5513
    7Mainz64117:3413
    8AEK Larnaca63307:1612
    9Lausanne63216:3311
    10Crystal Palace631211:6510
    11Lech Poznan631212:8410
    12Samsunspor631210:6410
    13Celje63128:7110
    14AZ Alkmaar63127:7010
    15Fiorentina63038:539
    16Rijeka62315:239
    17Jagiellonia62315:419
    18Omonia62225:418
    19Noah62226:7-18
    20Drita62224:8-48
    21KuPS61416:517
    22Shkendija62134:5-17
    23Zrinjski62138:10-27
    24Sigma Olomouc62137:9-27
    25Univ. Craiova62136:8-27
    26Lincoln Red Imps62137:15-87
    27Dyn. Kyiv62049:906
    28Legia62048:806
    29Slovan Bratislava62045:9-46
    30Breidablik61236:11-55
    31Shamrock Rovers61147:13-64
    32Hacken60335:8-33
    33Hamrun61054:11-73
    34Shelbourne60240:7-72
    35Aberdeen60243:14-112
    36SK Rapid60153:14-111

          Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
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