Result
1:1
01/11/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 11
- Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Albania | SuperSport 6 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Amazon Prime Video, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet World Now |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | SportKlub 9 |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3 |
 France | DAZN France |
 Georgia | Silk Universal |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Kenya | Gotv |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra |
 Nigeria | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Polsat Sport Premium 2 |
 Portugal | DAZN / App |
 Romania | Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV |
 Russia | TV Start, TV Start Triumph |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Spain | Gol Play, GolStadium |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 4 |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 0.91 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (450/541) | 80% (327/409) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 0.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 32 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (450/541) | 80% (327/409) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (33/55) | 33% (16/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (101/145) | 60% (48/80) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (3/16) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 0.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 52% (11/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 20 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.83 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.29 | -0.17 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 39', 1 - 0, Godts M. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 68', Trenskow J. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
- 68', 1 - 1, Sejk V. ⚽,
- 73', Rosa L. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
- 73', Regeer Y. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
- 80', Moro R. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
- 82', Vente D. ↓, Linday M. ↑,
- 83', van Overeem J. 🟨,
- 88', van Overeem J. ↓, Hopland N. ↑,
- 90+2', Rivera M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Ajax
63.4% | Draw
20.2% | Heerenveen
16.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajax's form might have worsened.Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
Ajax - Heerenveen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.51 ↑
(1.33) |
4.81 ↓
(5.5) |
5.94 ↓
(8) |
3.9%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Ajax - Heerenveen?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 62.2% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.5 - Heerenveen (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Heerenveen (4.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 50%). Heerenveen (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 4.
- Ajax has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Heerenveen is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Recently, Ajax has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Ajax is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S.
(Groin Injury)
Dolberg K.
(Abdominal strain)
van den Boomen B.
(Back Injury)
- There will not play in Heerenveen: Bochniewicz P.
(Knee Injury)
Smans L.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 17 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 66:18. (average 3.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 40:10. (average 4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Heerenveen?
Ajax has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Heerenveen won against Ajax?
Heerenveen has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ajax - Heerenveen were as follows:
19.01.2025
Heerenveen
-
Ajax
0:2
11.08.2024
Ajax
-
Heerenveen
1:0
11.02.2024
Heerenveen
-
Ajax
3:2
05.11.2023
Ajax
-
Heerenveen
4:1
12.03.2023
Heerenveen
-
Ajax
2:4
Latest results of Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 70:29 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55:33 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 59:40 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Ajax | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 6 | Twente | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:40 | -9 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36:31 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Groningen | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36:43 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26:39 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28:41 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Heracles | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 31:62 | -31 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
