Result
2:0
24/11/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 5
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD |
 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport |
 China | iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | SportKlub |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Hong-kong | HOY TV, M Plus Live |
 India | FanCode, FanCode, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel |
 Iran | IRIB Varzesh |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Russia | TV Start |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (382/455) | 67% (169/251) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 0.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 0.13 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (382/455) | 67% (169/251) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (18/37) | 28% (17/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (93/119) | 54% (46/85) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 27% (7/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.63 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (10/23) | 61% (14/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 72 | 63 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.13 | 1.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.13 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, Kauan Santos ⚽, Guilherme (A),
- 28', 2 - 0, Guilherme ⚽, Adil S. (A),
- 30', Djalo A. 🟨,
- 36', Mateus Henrique ↓, Gomes I. ↑,
- 36', Al Nuaimi E. 🟨,
- 45', Hamed J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Garcia D. ↓, Breno ↑,
- 57', Surag A. ↓, Muntari M. ↑,
- 79', Holgate M. ↓, Al-Ali R. A. ↑,
- 79', Gunnarsson A. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
- 83', Adil S. ↓, Mateusao ↑,
- 83', Guilherme ↓, Al Mansouri M. ↑,
- 90', Cartabia F. ↓, Al Ghassani Y. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/4w4yrbxk
Chances of winning
Shabab Al-Ahli
68.7% | Draw
18.4% | Al-Gharafa
12.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shabab Al-Ahli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)The chances for Al-Gharafa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Gharafa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.37 ↓
(1.38) |
5.1 ↑
(5.08) |
7.31 ↓
(7.35) |
6.4%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Gharafa?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Al-Gharafa will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shabab Al-Ahli: 68.4% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9).
- Shabab Al-Ahli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Al-Gharafa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Al-Gharafa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Al-Gharafa has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Shabab Al-Ahli is the undisputed favorite.
- We predict that Shabab Al-Ahli will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).
- Including home match between the teams, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Shabab Al-Ahli won against Al-Gharafa?
Shabab Al-Ahli has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Gharafa won against Shabab Al-Ahli?
Al-Gharafa has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Gharafa were as follows:
13.08.2024
Al-Gharafa
-
Shabab Al-Ahli
1:0
Latest results of Shabab Al-Ahli
Latest results of Al-Gharafa
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Al Hilal (1) | Al-Sadd (8) | |
| 2 | Al Ahli SC (2) | Al-Duhail (7) | |
| 3 | Tractor (3) | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (6) | |
| 4 | Al Ittihad (4) | Al Wahda (5) | |
| 5 | Machida (1) | Gangwon (8) | 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe (2) | Seoul (7) | 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (3) | Johor DT (6) | 1 : 3 |
| 8 | Buriram (4) | Melbourne City (5) | 1 : 1 |
