Result
2:3
06/01/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- QSL - Round 12
- Referee: Falahi S. A. (Qat)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD |
 Qatar | Al Kass One, Shoof |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (317/395) | 80% (321/400) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 1.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (317/395) | 80% (321/400) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 17% (5/29) | 52% (33/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (72/98) | 68% (65/95) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (5/25) | 5% (1/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (5/7) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 32 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.56 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.52 | -0.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 6', 0 - 1, Hamed J. ⚽,
- 31', Surag A. 🟨,
- 34', Sassi F. ↓, Al Khlif Y. M. ↑,
- 45+5', 0 - 2, Hamed J. ⚽, Surag A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', El Sayed A. ↓, Mansour K. ↑,
- 46', Al Shammari M. ↓, Suhail R. ↑,
- 53', Traore D. 🟨,
- 70', Hamed J. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
- 71', Sassi F. 🟨,
- 75', Aholou J. ↓, Mance A. ↑,
- 79', 0 - 3, Coman F. ⚽, Brahimi Y. (A),
- 86', 1 - 3, Mance A. ⚽, Fayez A. (A),
- 89', 2 - 3, Cristo ⚽,
- 90+1', Holgate M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Umm-Salal
22.5% | Draw
23.1% | Al-Gharafa
54.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Umm-Salal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Umm-Salal's performance.Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Gharafa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Umm-Salal than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Umm-Salal that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+13.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Gharafa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.08 ↓
(6) |
3.97 ↓
(5) |
1.69 ↑
(1.4) |
9.1%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Recently, Umm-Salal has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Al-Gharafa is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 28:42. (average 1.4:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Umm-Salal won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.7:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Umm-Salal won against Al-Gharafa?
Umm-Salal has won 1 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Gharafa won against Umm-Salal?
Al-Gharafa has won 7 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa were as follows:
15.08.2025
Al-Gharafa
-
Umm-Salal
4:2
19.05.2025
Al-Gharafa
-
Umm-Salal
4:2
07.03.2025
Umm-Salal
-
Al-Gharafa
0:1
18.10.2024
Al-Gharafa
-
Umm-Salal
3:1
05.10.2024
Umm-Salal
-
Al-Gharafa
5:0
Latest results of Umm-Salal
Latest results of Al-Gharafa
Qatar QSL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Al-Sadd | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 46:19 | 27 | 38 |
| 2 | Al-Gharafa | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 29:23 | 6 | 34 |
| 3 | Shamal | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29:18 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Al Rayyan | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 35:28 | 7 | 28 |
| 5 | Qatar SC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27:26 | 1 | 24 |
| 6 | Al Arabi | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 30:32 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Al Wakra | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23:24 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Al-Duhail | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 27:21 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Al Sailiya | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16:23 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Ahli Doha | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21:35 | -14 | 15 |
| 11 | Umm-Salal | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 27:43 | -16 | 15 |
| 12 | Al-Shahaniya | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:31 | -18 | 11 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
QSL (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Division 2
