Albirex Niigata vs Machida Zelvia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

29/06/2025 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata).

J1 League - Round 22
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.66	1.78
Ball Possession
63%	37%
Total shots
21	24
Shots on target
1	8
Big Chances
0	5
Corner Kicks
6	9
Passes
85% (457/540)	81% (244/303)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66	1.78
xG on target (xGOT)
0.18	1.11
Total shots
21	24
Shots on target
1	8
Shots off target
9	12
Blocked Shots
11	4
Shots inside the Box
13	13
Shots outside the Box
8	11
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
0	5
Corner Kicks
6	9
Touches in opposition box
36	30
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
6	4
Passes
85% (457/540)	81% (244/303)
Long passes
32% (12/38)	57% (28/49)
Passes in final third
76% (117/153)	71% (82/115)
Crosses
27% (3/11)	42% (11/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.61	1.24
Throw-ins
18	11
Fouls
4	6
Tackles
81% (13/16)	57% (8/14)
Duels won
37	38
Clearances
26	21
Interceptions
5	11
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	1
xGOT faced
1.11	0.18
Goals prevented
-2.89	0.16

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Nishimura T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', Shimoda H. 🟨,
61', Taniguchi K. ↓, Danilo Gomes ↑,
61', 0 - 2, Soma Y. ⚽, Fujio S. (A),
67', 0 - 3, Soma Y. ⚽,
69', Ota S. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
69', Miyamoto E. ↓, Hoshi Y. ↑,
76', 0 - 4, Fujio S. ⚽, Nishimura T. (A),
78', Fujio S. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
78', Hayashi K. ↓, Nakayama Y. ↑,
78', Shimoda H. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
83', Akiyama H. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,
83', Hasegawa M. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
88', Kikuchi R. ↓, Dresevic I. ↑,
88', Soma Y. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Albirex Niigata
25.1%

Draw
28.5%

Machida Zelvia
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

29.6%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

29.9%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (3.68)	3.33 ↑ (3.22)	2.05 ↓ (2.15)	5.5% (4.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia?

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Niigata will win (votes: 1 - 4.8%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 46.5% – 86.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 2.
Niigata has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Machida Zelvia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Machida Zelvia might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Inactive)
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:17. (average 1.6:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:3. (average 2:0.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Machida Zelvia?

Albirex Niigata has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Albirex Niigata?

Machida Zelvia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia were as follows:

15.03.2025 Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata 1:0

08.09.2024 Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata 2:0

04.09.2024 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 5:0

25.08.2024 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 0:0

01.06.2024 Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata 1:3

Latest results of Albirex Niigata

25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata 3:2 ✺

15.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Yokohama F. Marinos 1:0 ✺

11.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Fukuyama City 1:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Albirex Niigata 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

21.06.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers 2:1 ✺

14.06.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Machida Zelvia 1:2 ✺

11.06.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sangyo University 2:1 ✺

31.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Yokohama F. Marinos 0:3 ✺

25.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:2 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	24	14	4	6	34:22	12	46
2	Kashima Antlers	24	14	2	8	36:24	12	44
3	Kashiwa Reysol	24	12	8	4	33:23	10	44
4	Kyoto	24	12	6	6	40:29	11	42
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	24	13	3	8	29:18	11	42
6	Machida	24	12	4	8	34:25	9	40
7	Kawasaki Frontale	24	10	8	6	38:26	12	38
8	Urawa Reds	23	10	7	6	32:24	8	37
9	Cerezo Osaka	24	9	7	8	37:33	4	34
10	Gamba Osaka	24	10	4	10	29:31	-2	34
11	Avispa Fukuoka	23	8	7	8	21:23	-2	31
12	Okayama	24	8	6	10	20:22	-2	30
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	24	8	6	10	29:32	-3	30
14	FC Tokyo	24	8	5	11	27:34	-7	29
15	Nagoya Grampus	24	7	7	10	28:33	-5	28
16	Verdy	24	7	7	10	15:24	-9	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	24	6	6	12	20:37	-17	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	24	5	6	13	23:32	-9	21
19	Yokohama FC	24	5	4	15	14:30	-16	19
20	Albirex Niigata	24	4	7	13	24:41	-17	19

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League