Francis Tiafoe vs Alex De Minaur – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/01/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Melbourne Park (Melbourne).

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN

Match Stats


Aces
6	8
Double Faults
1	6
1st serve percentage
59%	62%
1st serve points won
60% (36/60)	78% (47/60)
2nd serve points won
51% (21/41)	51% (19/37)
Break Points Saved
58% (7/12)	60% (3/5)
Average 1st serve speed
190 km/h	190 km/h
Average 2nd serve speed
144 km/h	153 km/h
1st return points won
22% (13/60)	40% (24/60)
2nd return points won
49% (18/37)	49% (20/41)
Break Points Converted
40% (2/5)	42% (5/12)
Winners
25	31
Unforced errors
40	28
Net points won
50% (12/24)	74% (14/19)
Service Points Won
56% (57/101)	68% (66/97)
Return Points Won
32% (31/97)	44% (44/101)
Total Points Won
44% (88/198)	56% (110/198)
Last 10 balls
4	6
Match points saved
2	0
Service games won
67% (10/15)	88% (14/16)
Return games won
13% (2/16)	33% (5/15)
Total games won
39% (12/31)	61% (19/31)

Chances of winning

Francis Tiafoe
19.5%

Alex De Minaur
80.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

74.5%

Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.86 ↑ (3.74)		1.19 ↓ (1.28)	4.9% (5.1%)

What is the prediction for Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur?

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). De Minaur will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 66.1% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 57.1%). De Minaur (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +2.5 Sets - Tiafoe (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - De Minaur (1.68) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 37.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 35.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 6 - 46.2%). De Minaur (votes: 7 - 53.8%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 34. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 6.
Right now, both players are showing solid form.
Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, De Minaur is the team to beat.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.2:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Francis Tiafoe won against Alex De Minaur?

Francis Tiafoe has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alex De Minaur won against Francis Tiafoe?

Alex De Minaur has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur were as follows:

03.08.2025 Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur 1:2

03.11.2022 Alex De Minaur - Francis Tiafoe 0:2

Latest results of Francis Tiafoe

21.01.2026 Francis Tiafoe - Francisco Comesana 3:1 ✺

18.01.2026 Francis Tiafoe - Jason Kubler 3:0 ✺

06.01.2026 Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe 2:0 ✺

04.01.2026 Aleksandar Vukic - Francis Tiafoe 0:2 ✺

07.12.2025 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Francis Tiafoe 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Alex De Minaur

21.01.2026 Hamad Medjedovic - Alex De Minaur 1:3 ✺

18.01.2026 Mackenzie McDonald - Alex De Minaur 0:3 ✺

18.01.2026 Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur Canceled ✺

09.01.2026 Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz 2:1 ✺

06.01.2026 Alex De Minaur - Jakub Mensik 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Walton A.	3 : 0
2	Hanfmann Y.	Svajda Z. (Q)	3 : 1
3	Zheng M. (Q)	Korda S.	3 : 2
4	Schoolkate T.	Moutet C. (32)	0 : 3
5	Paul T. (19)	Kovacevic A.	3 : 0
6	Tirante T. A.	Vukic A.	3 : 0
7	Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)	Opelka R.	0 : 3
8	Misolic F.	Davidovich Fokina A. (14)	0 : 3
9	Bublik A. (10)	Brooksby J.	3 : 0
10	Ugo Carabelli C.	Fucsovics M.	0 : 3
11	Kecmanovic M.	Etcheverry T. M.	2 : 3
12	Fery A. (Q)	Cobolli F. (20)	3 : 0
13	Tiafoe F. (29)	Kubler J. (Q)	3 : 0
14	Kypson P. (WC)	Comesana F.	1 : 3
15	Navone M.	Medjedovic H.	1 : 3
16	McDonald M. (LL)	De Minaur A. (6)	0 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Diallo G.	3 : 1
18	Popyrin A.	Muller A.	2 : 3
19	Nava E.	Jacquet K. (WC)	3 : 2
20	Bonzi B.	Norrie C. (26)	2 : 3
21	Cerundolo F. (18)	Zhang Z.	3 : 0
22	Draxl L. (Q)	Dzumhur D.	0 : 3
23	Blockx A. (LL)	Faria J. (Q)	1 : 3
24	Arnaldi M.	Rublev A. (13)	0 : 3
25	Medvedev D. (11)	De Jong J.	3 : 0
26	Halys Q.	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
27	Majchrzak K.	Fearnley J.	3 : 1
28	Marozsan F.	Rinderknech A. (24)	3 : 1
29	Tien L. (25)	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Ymer E. (Q)	Shevchenko A.	1 : 3
31	Cerundolo J. M.	Thompson J. (WC)	1 : 3
32	Borges N.	Auger-Aliassime F. (RET.) (7)	2 : 1
33	Musetti L. (5)	Collignon R. (RET.)	2 : 1
34	Sonego L.	Taberner C.	3 : 0
35	Dimitrov G.	Machac T.	0 : 3
36	Mochizuki S.	Tsitsipas S. (31)	1 : 3
37	Lehecka J. (17)	Gea A. (Q)	0 : 3
38	Djere L.	Wawrinka S. (WC)	1 : 3
39	Kopriva V.	Struff J-L.	3 : 2
40	Royer V.	Fritz T. (9)	1 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 2
42	Sakamoto R. (Q)	Jodar R. (Q)	2 : 3
43	Hurkacz H.	Bergs Z.	3 : 1
44	Quinn E.	Griekspoor T. (23)	3 : 0
45	Nakashima B. (27)	Van De Zandschulp B.	1 : 3
46	Shang J.	Bautista-Agut R.	3 : 1
47	Atmane T.	Maestrelli F. (Q)	2 : 3
48	Martinez P.	Djokovic N. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (8)	Humbert U.	3 : 0
50	Sweeny D. (Q)	Monfils G.	3 : 1
51	Mannarino A.	Hijikata R. (WC)	0 : 3
52	Damm M. (Q)	Vacherot V. (30)	0 : 3
53	Shapovalov D. (21)	Bu Y. (WC)	3 : 0
54	Altmaier D.	Cilic M.	0 : 3
55	Munar J.	Svrcina D.	3 : 2
56	Bellucci M.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Khachanov K. (15)	Michelsen A.	3 : 2
58	O'Connell C. (WC)	Basavareddy N. (Q)	2 : 3
59	Mpetshi Perricard G.	Baez S.	2 : 3
60	Garin C.	Darderi L. (22)	0 : 3
61	Fonseca J. (28)	Spizzirri E.	1 : 3
62	Nardi L.	Wu Y. (Q)	1 : 3
63	Duckworth J. (WC)	Prizmic D. (LL)	3 : 2
64	Gaston H. (RET.)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

1/32-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Hanfmann Y.	3 : 0
2	Zheng M. (RET.)	Moutet C. (32)	1 : 2
3	Paul T. (19)	Tirante T. A.	3 : 0
4	Opelka R.	Davidovich Fokina A. (14)	2 : 3
5	Bublik A. (10)	Fucsovics M.	3 : 0
6	Etcheverry T. M.	Fery A.	3 : 0
7	Tiafoe F. (29)	Comesana F.	3 : 1
8	Medjedovic H.	De Minaur A. (6)	1 : 3
9	Zverev A. (3)	Muller A.	3 : 1
10	Nava E.	Norrie C. (26)	1 : 3
11	Cerundolo F. (18)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 0
12	Faria J.	Rublev A. (13)	1 : 3
13	Medvedev D. (11)	Halys Q.	3 : 1
14	Majchrzak K.	Marozsan F.	0 : 3
15	Tien L. (25)	Shevchenko A.	3 : 1
16	Thompson J.	Borges N.	1 : 3
17	Musetti L. (5)	Sonego L.	3 : 0
18	Machac T.	Tsitsipas S. (31)	3 : 1
19	Gea A.	Wawrinka S.	2 : 3
20	Kopriva V.	Fritz T. (9)	0 : 3
21	Mensik J. (16)	Jodar R.	3 : 0
22	Hurkacz H.	Quinn E.	0 : 3
23	Van De Zandschulp B.	Shang J.	3 : 0
24	Maestrelli F.	Djokovic N. (4)	0 : 3
25	Shelton B. (8)	Sweeny D.	3 : 0
26	Hijikata R.	Vacherot V. (30)	1 : 3
27	Shapovalov D. (21)	Cilic M.	0 : 3
28	Munar J.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
29	Khachanov K. (15)	Basavareddy N.	3 : 0
30	Baez S.	Darderi L. (22)	1 : 3
31	Spizzirri E.	Wu Y.	3 : 2
32	Duckworth J.	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Moutet C. (32)	3 : 0
2	Paul T. (19)	Davidovich Fokina A. (RET.) (14)	2 : 0
3	Bublik A. (10)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 0
4	Tiafoe F. (29)	De Minaur A. (6)	0 : 3
5	Zverev A. (3)	Norrie C. (26)	3 : 1
6	Cerundolo F. (18)	Rublev A. (13)	3 : 0
7	Medvedev D. (11)	Marozsan F.	3 : 2
8	Tien L. (25)	Borges N.	3 : 0
9	Musetti L. (5)	Machac T.	3 : 2
10	Wawrinka S.	Fritz T. (9)	1 : 3
11	Mensik J. (16)	Quinn E.	3 : 0
12	Van De Zandschulp B.	Djokovic N. (4)	0 : 3
13	Shelton B. (8)	Vacherot V. (30)	3 : 0
14	Cilic M.	Ruud C. (12)	1 : 3
15	Khachanov K. (15)	Darderi L. (22)	1 : 3
16	Spizzirri E.	Sinner J. (2)	1 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Paul T. (19)	3 : 0
2	Bublik A. (10)	De Minaur A. (6)	0 : 3
3	Zverev A. (3)	Cerundolo F. (18)	3 : 0
4	Medvedev D. (11)	Tien L. (25)	0 : 3
5	Musetti L. (5)	Fritz T. (9)	3 : 0
6	Mensik J. (16)	Djokovic N. (WO.) (4)
7	Shelton B. (8)	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 1
8	Darderi L. (22)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	De Minaur A. (6)	3 : 0
2	Zverev A. (3)	Tien L. (25)	3 : 1
3	Musetti L. (RET.) (5)	Djokovic N. (4)	2 : 0
4	Shelton B. (8)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Zverev A. (3)	3 : 2
2	Djokovic N. (4)	Sinner J. (2)	3 : 2

Final

1

Alcaraz C. (1)

Djokovic N. (4)

3 : 1