Alex Rybakov vs Maxim Mrva – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

24/02/2026 at 04:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/16-finals

Chances of winning


Alex Rybakov
42.4%
Maxim Mrva
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.6% 56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8% 51.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alex Rybakov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
  • Maxim Mrva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Rybakov than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Rybakov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maxim Mrva than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maxim Mrva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Alex Rybakov - Maxim Mrva Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.16
    (2.13)

    1.62
    (1.65)
    8.2%
    (7.6%)
    Preview Facts
    • Rybakov is ranked ATP: 295. Mrva is ranked ATP: 323.
    • Both players are struggling and far from their best.
    • Rybakov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.
    • The players have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Alex Rybakov
    Latest results of Maxim Mrva
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Budkov Kjaer N. (1)Bernet H. (WC)2 : 0
    2Cassone M.Nesterov P. (LL)
    3Dodig M.Forejtek J. (Q)
    4Gentzsch T.Skatov T. (7)0 : 2
    5Sachko V. (4)Brunclik P. (Q)
    6Schwaerzler J. J.Basic M. (Q)
    7Fatic N.Moro Canas A.
    8Stricker D. (WC)Grenier H. (6)
    9Rybakov A. (LL)Mrva M. (NG)
    10Bertola R.Mmoh M.1 : 2
    11Gakhov I.Piraino G. (Q)
    12Squire H.Piros Z. (3)0 : 2
    13Holmgren A. (8)Uchida K.
    14Brunold M. (WC)Knaff A. (Q)
    15Topo M.Huesler M.
    16Dietrich D. (Q)Glinka D. (2)

    1/8-finals
    1Budkov Kjaer N. (1)TBD #2
    2TBD #3Skatov T. (7)
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9Mmoh M.
    6TBD #11Piros Z. (3)
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2