Alexandr Binda vs Daniil Ostapenkov – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:0
17/01/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Hurghada 2, hard - Semi-finals

Match Stats

Last 10 balls
22

Chances of winning


Alexandr Binda
41.9%
Daniil Ostapenkov
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.7% 41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9% 43.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alexandr Binda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexandr Binda's form might have worsened.
  • Daniil Ostapenkov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniil Ostapenkov's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandr Binda than the current prediction. (+15%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexandr Binda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (-15%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniil Ostapenkov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Alexandr Binda - Daniil Ostapenkov Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.2
    (1.58)

    1.59
    (2.25)
    8.3%
    (7.8%)
    Preview Facts
    • Binda is ranked ATP: 445. Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 737.
    • Binda is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • In recent matches, Ostapenkov has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Binda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.
    • The players have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Alexandr Binda
    Latest results of Daniil Ostapenkov
    Draw
    2026

    1/16-finals
    1Purtseladze S. (1)Felsner F.2 : 0
    2Kivattsev K.Bulut E.2 : 0
    3Larue L.Vaitiekunas P.2 : 0
    4Figl M.Zakaria F. (7)0 : 2
    5Napolitano S. (4)Singh S.2 : 0
    6Ambarzumjan E.Jeran A.1 : 2
    7Miladinovic M.Ibrahim K.2 : 0
    8McDonald N.Neuchrist M. (RET.) (8)0 : 0
    9Erel Y. (5)Yilmaz K.2 : 0
    10Kellovsky D.Bittoun C.2 : 0
    11Rocha F.Boogaard T.0 : 2
    12Pietri B.Binda A. (3)1 : 2
    13Fonio G. (6)Turker M. N.0 : 2
    14McKennon M.Catini N.2 : 0
    15Ostapenkov D.Gerasimov E.2 : 0
    16Bakshi A.Poullain L. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Purtseladze S. (1)Kivattsev K.2 : 0
    2Larue L.Zakaria F. (7)0 : 2
    3Napolitano S. (4)Jeran A.2 : 0
    4Miladinovic M.McDonald N.2 : 1
    5Erel Y. (5)Kellovsky D.0 : 2
    6Boogaard T.Binda A. (3)1 : 2
    7Turker M. N.McKennon M.0 : 2
    8Ostapenkov D.Bakshi A.2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Purtseladze S. (1)Zakaria F. (7)2 : 0
    2Napolitano S. (4)Miladinovic M.1 : 2
    3Kellovsky D.Binda A. (3)0 : 2
    4McKennon M.Ostapenkov D.0 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Purtseladze S. (1)Miladinovic M.2 : 0
    2Binda A. (3)Ostapenkov D.2 : 0

    Final
    1Purtseladze S. (1)Binda A. (3)2 : 0