Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ATP Rio de Janeiro Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez
Result
0:2
23/02/2025 at 15:40 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), clay - Final
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliabeIN Sports 1
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 1
colombiaColombiaESPN
czech-republicCzech-republicPremier Sport 2
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
franceFranceEurosport 2
germanyGermanySky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 6
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
polandPolandPolsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaDigi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
swedenSwedenTV4 Play, TV4 Tennis

Match Stats

Aces
23
Double Faults
30
1st Serve Percentage
68%70%
1st Serve Points Won
60% (28/47)73% (24/33)
2nd Serve Points Won
32% (7/22)50% (7/14)
Break Points Saved
58% (7/12)80% (4/5)
1st Return Points Won
27% (9/33)40% (19/47)
2nd Return Points Won
50% (7/14)68% (15/22)
Break Points Converted
20% (1/5)42% (5/12)
Service Points Won
51% (35/69)66% (31/47)
Return Points Won
34% (16/47)49% (34/69)
Total Points Won
44% (51/116)56% (65/116)
Last 10 Balls
37
Match Points Saved
10
Service Games Won
44% (4/9)88% (7/8)
Return Games Won
13% (1/8)56% (5/9)
Total Games Won
29% (5/17)71% (12/17)

Chances of winning


Alexandre Muller
45.3%
Sebastian Baez
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.8% 60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3% 61.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alexandre Muller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexandre Muller's performance.
  • Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sebastian Baez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (-7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexandre Muller that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.1
    (2.3)

    1.74
    (1.52)
    5.1%
    (9.3%)
    What is the prediction for Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez?
  • Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Muller will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Baez will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Muller: 44.9%88.5%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Muller is ranked ATP: 60. Baez is ranked ATP: 31.
    • At the moment players are feeling good and ready to play.
    • Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • Recently, the players did not play each other.
    Latest results of Alexandre Muller
    Latest results of Sebastian Baez
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Bu Y.2 : 0
    2Shevchenko A.Meligeni Alves F. (WC)2 : 0
    3Heide G. (WC)Comesana F.1 : 2
    4Cerundolo J. M. (Q)Jarry N. (6)1 : 2
    5Cerundolo F. (4)Gaston H.2 : 0
    6Darderi L.Dellien H. (RET.) (Q)1 : 0
    7Fonseca J. (SE)Muller A.0 : 2
    8Moutet C.Etcheverry T. M. (8)0 : 2
    9Baez S. (5)Burruchaga R. A. (LL)2 : 0
    10Navone M.Carballes Baena R.2 : 0
    11Diaz Acosta F.Monteiro T. (WC)1 : 2
    12Tseng C. H. (Q)Tabilo A. (3)2 : 0
    13Martinez P. (7)Ugo Carabelli C. (LL)1 : 2
    14Lajovic D.Dzumhur D.0 : 2
    15Munar J.Seyboth Wild T.2 : 1
    16Barrios Vera T. (Q)Faria J. (LL)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    2Comesana F.Jarry N. (6)2 : 1
    3Cerundolo F. (4)Darderi L.2 : 1
    4Muller A.Etcheverry T. M. (8)2 : 0
    5Baez S. (5)Navone M.2 : 1
    6Monteiro T.Tseng C. H.1 : 2
    7Ugo Carabelli C.Dzumhur D.2 : 0
    8Munar J.Faria J.1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Comesana F.1 : 2
    2Cerundolo F. (4)Muller A.0 : 2
    3Baez S. (5)Tseng C. H.2 : 0
    4Ugo Carabelli C.Faria J.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Comesana F.Muller A.1 : 2
    2Baez S. (5)Ugo Carabelli C.2 : 1

    Final
    1Muller A.Baez S. (5)0 : 2