Alexey Vatutin vs Henrique Rocha – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:0
27/11/2025 at 08:10 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/8-finals

Match Stats

Aces
03
Double Faults
41
1st Serve Percentage
51%66%
1st Serve Points Won
68% (26/38)62% (29/47)
2nd Serve Points Won
69% (25/36)54% (13/24)
Break Points Saved
100% (4/4)67% (4/6)
1st Return Points Won
38% (18/47)37% (14/38)
2nd Return Points Won
46% (11/24)31% (11/36)
Break Points Converted
33% (2/6)0% (0/4)
Winners
2314
Unforced Errors
3026
Net Points Won
100% (9/9)25% (1/4)
Service Points Won
69% (51/74)59% (42/71)
Return Points Won
41% (29/71)31% (23/74)
Total Points Won
55% (80/145)45% (65/145)
Last 10 Balls
64
Match Points Saved
01
Service Games Won
100% (10/10)80% (8/10)
Return Games Won
20% (2/10)0% (0/10)
Total Games Won
60% (12/20)40% (8/20)

Chances of winning


Alexey Vatutin
25.4%
Henrique Rocha
74.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34.2% 65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2% 67.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alexey Vatutin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexey Vatutin's form might have worsened.
  • Henrique Rocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henrique Rocha's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexey Vatutin than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexey Vatutin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Henrique Rocha, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Alexey Vatutin - Henrique Rocha Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.68
    (2.75)

    1.26
    (1.43)
    6.7%
    (6.3%)
    Preview Facts
    • Vatutin is ranked ATP: 413. Rocha is ranked ATP: 155.
    • Vatutin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Rocha is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Rocha may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Rocha is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • We predict that Rocha will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.
    • The players have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Alexey Vatutin
    Latest results of Henrique Rocha
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Choinski J. (1)Feldbausch K.2 : 0
    2Bondioli F. (NG)Ferreira Silva F.1 : 2
    3Santamarta Roig A. (Q)Rocha F. (WC)2 : 0
    4Cadenasso G. (SE)Merida Aguilar D. (5)0 : 2
    5Moller E. (3)Araujo P. (WC)2 : 0
    6Michalski D.Curras Abasolo T. (Q)2 : 1
    7Blancaneaux G.Napolitano S. (PR)2 : 0
    8Pereira T.Lopez Montagud C. (Q)0 : 2
    9Giustino L. (7)Cretu C. (LL)2 : 0
    10Gakhov I.Martin A. (Q)1 : 2
    11Vatutin A. (LL)Agamenone F.2 : 1
    12Elias G. (WC)Rocha H. (4)1 : 2
    13Kolar Z. (8)Damas M.1 : 2
    14Andreev A. (PR)Marmousez L. (Q)1 : 2
    15Sanchez Izquierdo N.Sanchez Jover C. (Q)0 : 2
    16Jianu F. C.Faria J. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Choinski J. (1)Ferreira Silva F.2 : 1
    2Santamarta Roig A.Merida Aguilar D. (5)0 : 2
    3Moller E. (3)Michalski D.2 : 1
    4Blancaneaux G.Lopez Montagud C.1 : 2
    5Giustino L. (RET.) (7)Martin A.0 : 1
    6Vatutin A.Rocha H. (4)2 : 0
    7Damas M.Marmousez L.0 : 2
    8Sanchez Jover C.Jianu F. C.1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Choinski J. (1)Merida Aguilar D. (5)0 : 2
    2Moller E. (3)Lopez Montagud C.2 : 0
    3Martin A.Vatutin A.2 : 0
    4Marmousez L.Jianu F. C.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Merida Aguilar D. (5)Moller E. (3)0 : 2
    2Martin A.Marmousez L.2 : 1

    Final
    1Moller E. (3)Martin A.2 : 0