ADT Tarma vs Alianza Atlético – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

26/09/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma).

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 11
Referee: Haro D. (Per)
Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.65	0.37
Ball Possession
62%	38%
Total shots
21	8
Shots on target
8	2
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
6	1
Passes
80% (314/394)	58% (141/242)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65	0.37
xG on target (xGOT)
2.82	0.73
Total shots
21	8
Shots on target
8	2
Shots off target
10	5
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
12	3
Shots outside the Box
9	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
6	1
Touches in opposition box
32	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
4	0
Free Kicks
12	11
Passes
80% (314/394)	58% (141/242)
Long passes
52% (33/64)	23% (18/78)
Passes in final third
68% (96/141)	41% (34/82)
Crosses
28% (7/25)	22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.19	0.27
Throw-ins
25	29
Fouls
11	12
Tackles
91% (10/11)	100% (11/11)
Duels won
56	33
Clearances
40	25
Interceptions
10	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	6
xGOT faced
0.73	2.82
Goals prevented
0.73	1.82

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Larios Saavedra G. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Olmedo L. ↑,
62', Lupu H. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
62', Graneros A. ↓, Diaz R. ↑,
64', Villegas J. C. 🟨,
67', Cabello C. ↓, Montenegro D. ↑,
68', Barreto G. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
79', Perez J. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
80', Benincasa H. ↓, Quinones Goicochea J. J. ↑,
82', Da Luz M. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,
82', Narvaez J. ↓, Pinto O. ↑,
84', Olmedo L. 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Soto J. ⚽, Rojas J. (A),
86', Bazan N. 🟨,
90+1', Rojas J. ↓, Gutierrez A. ↑,

Chances of winning

ADT Tarma
55.9%

Draw
27.2%

Alianza Atlético
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

24.3%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

22.6%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ADT Tarma's performance.

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Atlético might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ADT Tarma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Atlético could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.79)	3.32 ↓ (3.7)	6.05 ↑ (3.55)	5.7% (11.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. ADT will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for ADT: 29% – 96%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
In this match, ADT is considered a favorite.
There are questionable in ADT: Cedron V. (Knee Injury) Da Luz M. (Injury)
There are questionable in Alianza Atlético: Lupu H. (Injury)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, ADT won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

How many head-to-head matches has ADT Tarma won against Alianza Atlético?

ADT Tarma has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Atlético won against ADT Tarma?

Alianza Atlético has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético were as follows:

04.05.2025 Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma 2:0

28.09.2024 ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético 0:1

28.04.2024 Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma 1:2

24.09.2023 ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético 1:0

06.05.2023 Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma 1:1

Latest results of ADT Tarma

22.09.2025 Cusco - ADT Tarma 0:2 ✺

16.09.2025 ADT Tarma - Cajamarca 3:1 ✺

14.09.2025 Escuela Municipal Binacional - ADT Tarma Canceled ✺

31.08.2025 Atlético Grau - ADT Tarma 2:0 ✺

24.08.2025 ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Alianza Atlético

22.09.2025 Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho 3:0 ✺

17.09.2025 Sporting Cristal - Alianza Atlético 0:0 ✺

13.09.2025 Alianza Atlético - Juan Pablo II College 0:1 ✺

17.08.2025 Cusco - Alianza Atlético 1:0 ✺

11.08.2025 Alianza Atlético - Cajamarca 2:0 ✺

Peruvian Liga 1 Table

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	U. de Deportes	12	9	3	0	23:8	15	30
2	Cusco	12	7	2	3	19:11	8	23
3	AD Tarma	13	6	3	4	17:17	0	21
4	Sporting Cristal	11	5	4	2	20:8	12	19
5	FBC Melgar	13	4	6	3	18:13	5	18
6	Alianza Lima	12	5	3	4	18:14	4	18
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	4	6	2	16:16	0	18
8	Alianza Atl	12	4	4	4	11:8	3	16
9	Comerciantes Unidos	12	4	4	4	14:17	-3	16
10	Sport Huancayo	13	4	3	6	23:22	1	15
11	Cienciano	11	4	3	4	16:15	1	15
12	Grau	12	4	3	5	16:15	1	15
13	Los Chankas	11	5	0	6	14:24	-10	15
14	Alianza Huanuco	12	4	1	7	14:24	-10	13
15	Sport Boys	12	3	3	6	10:16	-6	12
16	Juan Pablo II	11	2	5	4	9:14	-5	11
17	Ayacucho	12	3	2	7	10:19	-9	11
18	Cajamarca	11	1	3	7	9:16	-7	6
19	Binacional	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

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