Result
28/06/2025 at 19:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
| |
---|
Mexico | Fanatiz |
Peru | Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.75 | 1.26 |
Ball Possession |
---|
62% | 38% |
Total shots |
---|
14 | 10 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
6 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
85% (383/451) | 76% (218/287) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
5 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.75 | 1.26 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.90 | 0.87 |
Total shots |
---|
14 | 10 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
6 | 4 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
3 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
8 | 4 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 6 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
6 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
17 | 11 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
9 | 12 |
Passes |
---|
85% (383/451) | 76% (218/287) |
Long passes |
---|
55% (40/73) | 52% (26/50) |
Passes in final third |
---|
76% (94/124) | 50% (35/70) |
Crosses |
---|
24% (8/33) | 14% (1/7) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.76 | 0.84 |
Throw-ins |
---|
17 | 17 |
Fouls |
---|
12 | 9 |
Tackles |
---|
63% (15/24) | 83% (10/12) |
Duels won |
---|
49 | 48 |
Clearances |
---|
12 | 33 |
Interceptions |
---|
9 | 8 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 5 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.87 | 0.90 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.13 | 0.90 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 54', Zambrano C. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
- 57', Barcos H. 🟨,
- 58', Quevedo K. 🟨,
- 58', Martinez T. 🟨,
- 60', Tandazo W. 🟨,
- 65', Cantero A. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
- 65', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
- 69', Bordacahar C. ↓, Cuesta B. ↑,
- 74', Castillo J. 🟨,
- 74', Quevedo K. ↓, Soyer B. ↑,
- 81', Cuesta B. 🟨,
- 83', Orzan H. 🟨,
- 84', 0 - 1, Gaibor F. (Pen),
- 85', Guzman L. ↓, Cabanillas N. ↑,
- 85', Lazo M. ↓, Barreda M. ↑,
- 88', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
- 90+6', Barrios P. 🟨,
Chances of winning
FBC Melgar 49.6% | Draw 29.1% | Alianza Lima 21.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.89 ↓ (2.2) |
3.18 ↓ (3.2) |
4.33 ↑ (3.39) |
7.6% (6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Melgar (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.
- Recent performances by Melgar have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Alianza Lima is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Melgar is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has FBC Melgar won against Alianza Lima?
FBC Melgar has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against FBC Melgar?
Alianza Lima has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima were as follows:
28.09.2024
Alianza Lima
-
FBC Melgar
1:1
28.04.2024
FBC Melgar
-
Alianza Lima
1:0
28.09.2023
Alianza Lima
-
FBC Melgar
0:0
19.05.2023
FBC Melgar
-
Alianza Lima
2:1
12.11.2022
Alianza Lima
-
FBC Melgar
2:0
Latest results of FBC Melgar
Latest results of Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1 Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Sport Huancayo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:1 | 4 | 4 |
2 | Sporting Cristal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
4 | U. de Deportes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 3 |
5 | Cusco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
6 | FBC Melgar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
7 | Grau | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
8 | AD Tarma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
9 | Juan Pablo II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
10 | Alianza Atl | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
11 | Binacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
12 | Cajamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
13 | Ayacucho | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
14 | Cienciano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
15 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 0 |
16 | Alianza Lima | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
17 | Sport Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
18 | Alianza Huanuco | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
19 | Los Chankas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )