FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Peruvian Liga 1 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima
28/06/2025 at 19:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
peruPeruLiga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.751.26
Ball Possession
62%38%
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
85% (383/451)76% (218/287)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
0.751.26
xG on target (xGOT)
0.900.87
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
84
Shots outside the Box
66
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
1711
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
912
Passes
85% (383/451)76% (218/287)
Long passes
55% (40/73)52% (26/50)
Passes in final third
76% (94/124)50% (35/70)
Crosses
24% (8/33)14% (1/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.760.84
Throw-ins
1717
Fouls
129
Tackles
63% (15/24)83% (10/12)
Duels won
4948
Clearances
1233
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
35
xGOT faced
0.870.90
Goals prevented
-0.130.90

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 54', Zambrano C. , Castillo J. ,
  • 57', Barcos H. 🟨,
  • 58', Quevedo K. 🟨,
  • 58', Martinez T. 🟨,
  • 60', Tandazo W. 🟨,
  • 65', Cantero A. , Cari P. ,
  • 65', Barcos H. , Paolo Guerrero ,
  • 69', Bordacahar C. , Cuesta B. ,
  • 74', Castillo J. 🟨,
  • 74', Quevedo K. , Soyer B. ,
  • 81', Cuesta B. 🟨,
  • 83', Orzan H. 🟨,
  • 84', 0 - 1, Gaibor F. (Pen),
  • 85', Guzman L. , Cabanillas N. ,
  • 85', Lazo M. , Barreda M. ,
  • 88', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. , Rodriguez G. ,
  • 90+6', Barrios P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


FBC Melgar
49.6%
Draw
29.1%
Alianza Lima
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.8% 29.4% 27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6% 30.6% 26.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.
  • Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.89
    (2.2)
    3.18
    (3.2)
    4.33
    (3.39)
    7.6%
    (6.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima?
  • Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Melgar (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.
    • Recent performances by Melgar have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Alianza Lima is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Melgar is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima were as follows:
    28.09.2024 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 1:1
    28.04.2024 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima 1:0
    28.09.2023 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 0:0
    19.05.2023 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima 2:1
    12.11.2022 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 2:0
    Latest results of FBC Melgar
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    Peruvian Liga 1 Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sport Huancayo21105:144
    2Sporting Cristal11003:033
    3Deportivo Garcilaso11003:033
    4U. de Deportes11003:123
    5Cusco11002:023
    6FBC Melgar11002:113
    7Grau11002:113
    8AD Tarma11001:013
    9Juan Pablo II21014:5-13
    10Alianza Atl10100:001
    11Binacional10100:001
    12Cajamarca20111:2-11
    13Ayacucho10011:2-10
    14Cienciano10010:1-10
    15Comerciantes Unidos10011:3-20
    16Alianza Lima10010:2-20
    17Sport Boys10010:3-30
    18Alianza Huanuco10010:3-30
    19Los Chankas10010:3-30

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