Málaga vs Almería – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish LaLiga2
Result
2:1
21/12/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga2 - Round 19
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaSporty TV, StarTimes App
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 6
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, Vidio
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 3
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1x2
spainSpainDAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
swedenSwedenTV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
thailandThailandbeIN SPORTS MAX
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.521.59
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
1514
Shots on target
75
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
12
Passes
77% (225/294)85% (425/499)
Yellow Cards
54
Expected Goals (xG)
1.521.59
xG on target (xGOT)
2.041.67
Total shots
1514
Shots on target
75
Shots off target
57
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
106
Shots outside the Box
58
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
12
Touches in opposition box
2417
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
820
Passes
77% (225/294)85% (425/499)
Long passes
46% (26/57)56% (35/63)
Passes in final third
65% (49/75)76% (87/115)
Crosses
0% (0/5)25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.040.58
Throw-ins
2824
Fouls
208
Tackles
71% (12/17)67% (14/21)
Duels won
3962
Clearances
1912
Interceptions
1413
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
45
xGOT faced
1.672.04
Goals prevented
0.670.04

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', Munoz A. 🟨,
  • 27', Chirino D. 🟨,
  • 33', 1 - 0, Lorenzo D. ⚽, Chupe (A),
  • 36', Merino I. 🟨,
  • 41', Murillo D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Munoz A. ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
  • 46', Hernandez A. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
  • 64', Chirino D. ↓, Luna M. ↑,
  • 66', Dotor C. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
  • 69', 1 - 1, Arribas S. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 74', Munoz J. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
  • 74', Merino I. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
  • 75', Thalys ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
  • 76', Monte N. 🟨,
  • 79', Arribas S. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
  • 81', 2 - 1, Chupe ⚽,
  • 81', Chupe 🟨,
  • 83', Larrubia D. ↓, Abaida H. ↑,
  • 83', Chupe ↓, Lobete J. ↑,
  • 90', Puga C. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Lopy D. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Garcia V. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/456v5566

Chances of winning


Málaga
32.5%		Draw
29.1%		Almería
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
27.8% 30.8% 41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3% 31.4% 42.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)
  • Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
    •

    Málaga - Almería Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.9 ↓
    (3.4)    		 3.22 ↑
    (3.07)    		 2.45 ↑
    (2.28)    		 6.4%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Málaga - Almería?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Almería will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 27.4% – 68.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2.
    • Málaga has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Almería's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Málaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D. (Knee Injury) Diarra M. (Knee Injury) Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Juanpe (Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Almería: Bonini F. (Hamstring Injury) Melamed N. (Muscle Injury) Robertone L. (Muscle Injury) Soko P. (International duty)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 0.7:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Málaga - Almería were as follows:
    26.07.2025 Almería - Málaga 1:2
    01.03.2025 Almería - Málaga 2:2
    08.12.2024 Málaga - Almería 1:1
    27.07.2024 Málaga - Almería 0:1
    27.07.2023 Almería - Málaga 0:1
    Latest results of Málaga
    14.12.2025 Albacete Balompié - Málaga 1:3 ✺
    08.12.2025 Málaga - Zaragoza 1:1 ✺
    03.12.2025 Talavera de la Reina - Málaga 2:1 ✺
    29.11.2025 Valladolid - Málaga 1:1 ✺
    23.11.2025 Málaga - Mirandés 3:2 ✺
    Latest results of Almería
    14.12.2025 Almería - Burgos 1:2 ✺
    06.12.2025 FC Andorra - Almería 1:2 ✺
    03.12.2025 Eldense - Almería 2:1 ✺
    29.11.2025 Almería - Huesca 0:0 ✺
    26.11.2025 Ceuta - Almería 3:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga2 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Santander341951067:531462
    2Almeria34187966:471961
    3Dep. La Coruna34179852:371560
    4Las Palmas341512745:281757
    5Castellon34169956:411557
    6Malaga34169956:411557
    7Burgos CF34169941:291257
    8Eibar341591040:31954
    9Gijon341471345:43249
    10Ceuta341461442:55-1348
    11Andorra3412101250:47346
    12Cordoba341291346:52-645
    13Albacete3411111243:45-244
    14Granada CF3410121243:41242
    15Real Sociedad B341171645:50-540
    16Leganes349121338:37139
    17Valladolid341091539:47-839
    18Cadiz CF341081633:47-1438
    19Zaragoza348101631:46-1534
    20Huesca34881834:52-1832
    21Mirandes34881835:54-1932
    22Cultural Leonesa34881831:55-2432

          Promotion ~ LaLiga
          Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation

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