Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

15/03/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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WTA - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - Final

Match Stats


Aces
10	12
Double Faults
3	2
1st serve percentage
56%	58%
1st serve points won
67% (40/60)	63% (35/56)
2nd serve points won
56% (27/48)	70% (28/40)
Break Points Saved
6/9	5/8
1st return points won
38% (21/56)	33% (20/60)
2nd return points won
30% (12/40)	44% (21/48)
Break Points Converted
3/8	3/9
Service Points Won
62% (67/108)	66% (63/96)
Return Points Won
34% (33/96)	38% (41/108)
Total Points Won
49% (100/204)	51% (104/204)
Last 10 balls
6	4
Match points saved
1	0
Service games won
80% (12/15)	80% (12/15)
Return games won
20% (3/15)	20% (3/15)
Total games won
50% (15/30)	50% (15/30)

Chances of winning

Aryna Sabalenka
58.6%

Elena Rybakina
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Elena Rybakina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.66)		2.32 ↑ (2.2)	4% (5.7%)

What is the prediction for Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina?

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 12 - 36.4%). Rybakina will win (votes: 21 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rybakina: 47.2% – 80%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Rybakina (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 21.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 2nd Set - Rybakina (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Rybakina (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 Games - Rybakina (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Rybakina (votes: 8 - 66.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Rybakina is ranked WTA: 3.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 2.
Sabalenka has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Rybakina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Sabalenka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
We predict that Sabalenka will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1.2:1.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Aryna Sabalenka won against Elena Rybakina?

Aryna Sabalenka has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Elena Rybakina won against Aryna Sabalenka?

Elena Rybakina has won 8 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina were as follows:

31.01.2026 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 1:2

08.11.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 0:2

10.10.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 2:0

15.08.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 0:2

20.06.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 2:1

Latest results of Aryna Sabalenka

13.03.2026 Aryna Sabalenka - Linda Noskova 2:0 ✺

12.03.2026 Aryna Sabalenka - Victoria Mboko 2:0 ✺

10.03.2026 Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka 2:0 ✺

08.03.2026 Aryna Sabalenka - Jaqueline Adina Cristian 2:0 ✺

06.03.2026 Aryna Sabalenka - Himeno Sakatsume 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Elena Rybakina

13.03.2026 Elena Rybakina - Elina Svitolina 2:0 ✺

12.03.2026 Jessica Pegula - Elena Rybakina 0:2 ✺

11.03.2026 Sonay Kartal - Elena Rybakina Kartal S. retired ✺

10.03.2026 Marta Kostyuk - Elena Rybakina 0:2 ✺

07.03.2026 Hailey Baptiste - Elena Rybakina 1:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bye
2	Sakatsume H. (Q)	Parks A. (WC)	2 : 0
3	Cristian J.	Tjen J.	2 : 1
4	Bye	Joint M. (29)
5	Jovic I. (18)	Bye
6	Stephens S. (WC)	Osorio C.	0 : 2
7	Jimenez Kasintseva V. (Q)	McNally C.	2 : 1
8	Bye	Osaka N. (16)
9	Mboko V. (10)	Bye
10	Birrell K.	Selekhmeteva O.	2 : 0
11	Sonmez Z.	Kessler M.	2 : 0
12	Bye	Kalinskaya A. (23)
13	Raducanu E. (25)	Bye
14	Seidel E.	Zakharova A. (Q)	0 : 2
15	Galfi D. (LL)	Blinkova A.	0 : 2
16	Bye	Anisimova A. (6)
17	Gauff C. (4)	Bye
18	Andreescu B. (WC)	Rakhimova K. (Q)	1 : 2
19	Yastremska D.	Zhang S.	2 : 0
20	Bye	Eala A. (31)
21	Shnaider D. (21)	Bye
22	Cirstea S.	Maria T.	2 : 1
23	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Haddad Maia B.	2 : 1
24	Bye	Noskova L. (14)
25	Alexandrova E. (11)	Bye
26	Gibson T. (Q)	Li A.	2 : 0
27	Putintseva Y.	Badosa P.	2 : 0
28	Bye	Tauson C. (17)
29	Wang Xin. (30)	Bye
30	Tomljanovic A.	Ruse G.	2 : 0
31	Potapova A.	Stakusic M. (Q)	2 : 1
32	Bye	Paolini J. (7)
33	Pegula J. (5)	Bye
34	Vekic D. (WC)	Valentova T.	2 : 0
35	Volynets K. (WC)	Sramkova R. (RET.)	1 : 0
36	Bye	Ostapenko J. (26)
37	Mertens E. (22)	Bye
38	Bucsa C.	Vidmanova D. (Q)	2 : 0
39	Hunter S. (Q)	Frech M.	2 : 1
40	Bye	Bencic B. (12)
41	Keys M. (15)	Bye
42	Parry D. (Q)	Williams V. (WC)	2 : 1
43	Tararudee L. (Q)	Kartal S.	0 : 2
44	Bye	Navarro E. (20)
45	Kostyuk M. (28)	Bye
46	Bouzkova M.	Townsend T. (Q)	0 : 2
47	Arango E.	Baptiste H.	1 : 2
48	Bye	Rybakina E. (3)
49	Andreeva M. (8)	Bye
50	Stearns P.	Sierra S.	0 : 2
51	Siniakova K.	Kenin S.	2 : 1
52	Bye	Fernandez L. (27)
53	Samsonova L. (19)	Bye
54	Linette M.	Krueger A.	0 : 2
55	Siegemund L.	Marcinko P.	2 : 1
56	Bye	Svitolina E. (9)
57	Muchova K. (13)	Bye
58	Jacquemot E.	Bondar A.	0 : 2
59	Ruzic A.	Brady J. (WC)	2 : 1
60	Bye	Zheng Q. (24)
61	Sakkari M. (32)	Bye
62	Gracheva V.	Tagger L. (WC)	0 : 2
63	Jones F.	Day K. (Q)	0 : 2
64	Bye	Swiatek I. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Sakatsume H.	2 : 0
2	Cristian J.	Joint M. (29)	2 : 1
3	Jovic I. (18)	Osorio C.	1 : 2
4	Jimenez Kasintseva V.	Osaka N. (16)	0 : 2
5	Mboko V. (10)	Birrell K.	2 : 0
6	Sonmez Z.	Kalinskaya A. (23)	0 : 2
7	Raducanu E. (25)	Zakharova A.	2 : 0
8	Blinkova A.	Anisimova A. (6)	1 : 2
9	Gauff C. (4)	Rakhimova K.	2 : 0
10	Yastremska D.	Eala A. (31)	1 : 2
11	Shnaider D. (21)	Cirstea S.	0 : 2
12	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Noskova L. (14)	0 : 2
13	Alexandrova E. (11)	Gibson T.	0 : 2
14	Putintseva Y.	Tauson C. (17)	0 : 2
15	Wang Xin. (30)	Tomljanovic A.	0 : 2
16	Potapova A.	Paolini J. (7)	1 : 2
17	Pegula J. (5)	Vekic D.	2 : 1
18	Volynets K.	Ostapenko J. (26)	0 : 2
19	Mertens E. (22)	Bucsa C.	2 : 0
20	Hunter S.	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
21	Keys M. (15)	Parry D.	2 : 0
22	Kartal S.	Navarro E. (20)	2 : 1
23	Kostyuk M. (28)	Townsend T.	2 : 0
24	Baptiste H.	Rybakina E. (3)	1 : 2
25	Andreeva M. (8)	Sierra S.	2 : 0
26	Siniakova K.	Fernandez L. (27)	2 : 1
27	Samsonova L. (19)	Krueger A.	1 : 2
28	Siegemund L.	Svitolina E. (9)	1 : 2
29	Muchova K. (13)	Bondar A.	2 : 0
30	Ruzic A.	Zheng Q. (24)	2 : 0
31	Sakkari M. (32)	Tagger L.	2 : 0
32	Day K.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Cristian J.	2 : 0
2	Osorio C.	Osaka N. (16)	1 : 2
3	Mboko V. (10)	Kalinskaya A. (23)	2 : 0
4	Raducanu E. (25)	Anisimova A. (6)	0 : 2
5	Gauff C. (RET.) (4)	Eala A. (31)	0 : 1
6	Cirstea S.	Noskova L. (14)	1 : 2
7	Gibson T.	Tauson C. (17)	2 : 1
8	Tomljanovic A.	Paolini J. (7)	1 : 2
9	Pegula J. (5)	Ostapenko J. (26)	2 : 1
10	Mertens E. (22)	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
11	Keys M. (15)	Kartal S.	1 : 2
12	Kostyuk M. (28)	Rybakina E. (3)	0 : 2
13	Andreeva M. (8)	Siniakova K.	1 : 2
14	Krueger A.	Svitolina E. (9)	0 : 2
15	Muchova K. (13)	Ruzic A.	2 : 0
16	Sakkari M. (32)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Osaka N. (16)	2 : 0
2	Mboko V. (10)	Anisimova A. (6)	2 : 0
3	Eala A. (31)	Noskova L. (14)	0 : 2
4	Gibson T.	Paolini J. (7)	2 : 1
5	Pegula J. (5)	Bencic B. (12)	2 : 0
6	Kartal S. (RET.)	Rybakina E. (3)	0 : 1
7	Siniakova K. (RET.)	Svitolina E. (9)	0 : 1
8	Muchova K. (13)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Mboko V. (10)	2 : 0
2	Noskova L. (14)	Gibson T.	2 : 1
3	Pegula J. (5)	Rybakina E. (3)	0 : 2
4	Svitolina E. (9)	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 1

Semi-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Noskova L. (14)	2 : 0
2	Rybakina E. (3)	Svitolina E. (9)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sabalenka A. (1)

Rybakina E. (3)

2 : 1