Result
4:3
07/01/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.80 | 2.54 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 40 | 31 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 10% (4/40) | 9.68% (3/31) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 28 | 36 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 90.32% (28/31) | 90% (36/40) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 25% (1/4) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 75% (3/4) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 27 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 51.79 | 48.21 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 15:00, Nilsson O. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 00:35, 0 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Hirvonen R. (A),
- 03:06, Raty Aku (2 min),
- 04:42, 1 - 1, Lipiainen V. (G), Maatta R. (A), Noiva N. (A2)
- 14:21, Juusola V. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (3 - 2)
- 04:10, Viljanen V. (2 min),
- 04:10, Heikkala V. (2 min),
- 05:16, 2 - 1, Knihti F. (G), Kim A. (A), Kostilainen S. (A2)
- 07:29, 2 - 2, Stalberg S. (G), Tikka T. (A),
- 09:26, 3 - 2, Tammela J. (G), Jarvinen J. (A), Olofsson J. (A2)
- 10:01, 4 - 2, Talaja R. (G), Viljanen V. (A), Anttalainen A. (A2)
- 11:54, Kantner M. (2 min),
- 12:53, 4 - 3, Tikka T. (G),
Chances of winning
Ässät
38.6% | Draw
23.9% | Kärpät
37.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Ässät - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.46 ↑
(2.32) |
3.87 ↑
(3.74) |
2.48 ↓
(2.78) |
6.8%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ässät - Kärpät?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Ässät will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ässät: 35.9% – 97.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Kärpät (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 4.
- Recent form of Ässät has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Kärpät has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 40:55. (average 2:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ässät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 2.3:2.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Ässät won against Kärpät?
Ässät has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Ässät?
Kärpät has won 8 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ässät - Kärpät were as follows:
28.10.2025
Kärpät
-
Ässät
2:4
20.09.2025
Ässät
-
Kärpät
5:2
01.03.2025
Ässät
-
Kärpät
3:1
15.01.2025
Kärpät
-
Ässät
5:2
30.11.2024
Kärpät
-
Ässät
1:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 36 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 128:84 | 72 |
| 2 | Lukko | 36 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 112:90 | 66 |
| 3 | JYP | 34 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 128:99 | 66 |
| 4 | SaiPa | 37 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 125:102 | 65 |
| 5 | KooKoo | 36 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 125:97 | 63 |
| 6 | Ilves | 36 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 114:98 | 63 |
| 7 | Assat | 36 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 106:89 | 62 |
| 8 | KalPa | 35 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 107:114 | 56 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 37 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 97:111 | 50 |
| 10 | TPS Turku | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 86:102 | 48 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 36 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 83:115 | 47 |
| 12 | Jukurit | 36 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 82:96 | 46 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 35 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 69:88 | 45 |
| 14 | Karpat | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 115:124 | 42 |
| 15 | Hameenlinna | 38 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 91:113 | 42 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 36 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 73:119 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
