Athletic Bilbao vs Atlético Madrid – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

06/12/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao).

LaLiga - Round 15
Referee: Ruiz A. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Startimes Am'mobi, StarTimes App, Startimes Ganza, Startimes Sports Arena, Startimes Sports Focus, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, Startimes World Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Disney+, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.05	0.65
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Total shots
14	7
Shots on target
3	3
Big Chances
3	2
Corner Kicks
5	6
Passes
74% (287/386)	79% (383/487)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05	0.65
xG on target (xGOT)
0.88	0.99
Total shots
14	7
Shots on target
3	3
Shots off target
8	3
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
10	3
Shots outside the Box
4	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
3	2
Corner Kicks
5	6
Touches in opposition box
23	14
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
12	9
Passes
74% (287/386)	79% (383/487)
Long passes
33% (21/64)	50% (32/64)
Passes in final third
61% (73/120)	58% (63/109)
Crosses
32% (6/19)	41% (7/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.26	0.91
Throw-ins
23	29
Fouls
9	12
Tackles
82% (9/11)	80% (12/15)
Duels won
49	60
Clearances
30	28
Interceptions
17	13
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
0.99	0.88
Goals prevented
0.99	-0.12

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Gallagher C. 🟨,
14', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
20', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
28', Laporte A. 🟨,
33', Laporte A. ↓, Vivian D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gallagher C. ↓, Koke ↑,
62', Almada T. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
62', Lenglet C. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
66', Alvarez J. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
66', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
66', Guruzeta G. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
72', Gonzalez N. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
82', Areso J. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
82', Sancet O. ↓, Izeta ↑,
85', 1 - 0, Berenguer A. ⚽, Williams N. (A),
90+4', Koke 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Athletic Bilbao
33.3%

Draw
30%

Atlético Madrid
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

28.3%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

28.7%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao's performance.

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.38)	3.19 ↓ (3.36)	2.62 ↑ (2.18)	4.1% (5.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid?

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 9 - 21.4%). Atlético will win (votes: 24 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 42.1% – 72.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Atlético (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DNB - Atlético (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Athletic (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Atlético (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Athletic (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Atlético (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.
Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Atlético is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Navarro R. (Ankle Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams I. (Groin Injury)
There will not play in Atlético: Baena A. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Knee Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Muscle Injury) Llorente M. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.4:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Atlético Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Madrid won against Athletic Bilbao?

Atlético Madrid has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid were as follows:

01.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0

31.08.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid 0:1

27.04.2024 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 3:1

29.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid 3:0

07.02.2024 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 0:1

Latest results of Athletic Bilbao

03.12.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 0:3 ✺

29.11.2025 Levante - Athletic Bilbao 0:2 ✺

25.11.2025 Slavia Prague - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

22.11.2025 Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao 4:0 ✺

09.11.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Real Oviedo 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Atlético Madrid

02.12.2025 Barcelona - Atlético Madrid 3:1 ✺

29.11.2025 Atlético Madrid - Real Oviedo 2:0 ✺

26.11.2025 Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan 2:1 ✺

23.11.2025 Getafe - Atlético Madrid 0:1 ✺

08.11.2025 Atlético Madrid - Levante 3:1 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Barcelona	26	21	1	4	71:26	45	64
2	Real Madrid	26	19	3	4	54:22	32	60
3	Atl. Madrid	26	15	6	5	43:23	20	51
4	Villarreal	26	16	3	7	48:31	17	51
5	Betis	26	11	10	5	42:32	10	43
6	Celta Vigo	26	10	10	6	36:28	8	40
7	Espanyol	26	10	6	10	33:39	-6	36
8	Real Sociedad	26	9	8	9	38:38	0	35
9	Ath Bilbao	26	10	5	11	30:36	-6	35
10	Osasuna	26	9	6	11	30:30	0	33
11	Getafe	26	9	5	12	21:29	-8	32
12	Sevilla	26	8	6	12	34:41	-7	30
13	Girona	26	7	9	10	27:42	-15	30
14	Valencia	26	7	8	11	27:39	-12	29
15	Rayo Vallecano	25	6	9	10	23:32	-9	27
16	Alaves	26	7	6	13	23:34	-11	27
17	Elche	26	5	11	10	34:39	-5	26
18	Mallorca	26	6	6	14	29:42	-13	24
19	Levante	26	5	6	15	28:44	-16	21
20	Oviedo	25	3	8	14	16:40	-24	17

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2