Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:3
03/12/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga - Round 19
  • Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
afghanistanAfghanistanTolo TV
africaAfricaAzam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 2
andorraAndorrabeIN Sports 1
angolaAngolaZ Sports La Liga
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Sports 3
austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 2
bangladeshBangladeshBegin
brazilBrazilDisney+
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
canadaCanadaTSN+
chinaChinaiQIYI
colombiaColombiaESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
cubaCubaTele Rebelde
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
europeEuropeGo3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceNova Sports Prime
haitiHaitiCanal+ Sport 1
hong-kongHong-kongNow Player, NOW Sports 2
hungaryHungarySpiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect
iranIranIRIB Varzesh
italyItaly214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
kenyaKenyaGotv
kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 2
laosLaosbeIN Connect
madagascarMadagascarUpTV
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
maldivesMaldivesICE Xtra, Medianet
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 4
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
mozambiqueMozambiqueStartimes Mania
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport LaLiga
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
polandPolandCANAL+ Sport
portugalPortugalDAZN 1, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1 Premium
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
spainSpainDAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
swedenSwedenTV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 2
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
turkeyTurkeyS Sport, S Sport+
turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 2
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2, Zor TV
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
vietnamVietnamSCTV 22

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.872.04
Ball Possession
38%62%
Total shots
913
Shots on target
48
Big Chances
26
Corner Kicks
57
Passes
79% (297/376)89% (570/642)
Yellow Cards
20
Expected Goals (xG)
0.872.04
xG on target (xGOT)
1.223.17
Total shots
913
Shots on target
48
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
11
Shots inside the Box
75
Shots outside the Box
28
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
26
Corner Kicks
57
Touches in opposition box
2024
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
415
Passes
79% (297/376)89% (570/642)
Long passes
36% (13/36)55% (33/60)
Passes in final third
68% (92/135)79% (99/125)
Crosses
14% (3/21)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.801.60
Throw-ins
2117
Fouls
154
Tackles
46% (6/13)67% (16/24)
Duels won
3266
Clearances
1936
Interceptions
158
Errors leading to shot
31
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
54
xGOT faced
3.171.22
Goals prevented
0.171.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 7', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. , Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
  • 42', 0 - 2, Camavinga E. , Mbappe K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Lekue I. , Areso J. ,
  • 46', Ruiz de Galarreta I. , Gomez U. ,
  • 55', Alexander-Arnold T. , Asencio R. ,
  • 59', 0 - 3, Mbappe K. , Carreras A. (A),
  • 66', Berenguer A. 🟨,
  • 69', Berenguer A. , Serrano N. ,
  • 69', Jauregizar M. , Vesga M. ,
  • 69', Camavinga E. , Guler A. ,
  • 76', Rego A. 🟨,
  • 78', Eder Militao , Garcia G. ,
  • 78', Mbappe K. , Rodrygo ,
  • 78', Vinicius Junior , Diaz B. ,
  • 78', Williams N. , Sanchez S. ,

Chances of winning


Athletic Bilbao
20.5%
Draw
23.5%
Real Madrid
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
23.1% 24.4% 52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9% 24.2% 53%

Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
4.71
(4.12)
4.07
(3.9)
1.72
(1.81)
4.1%
(5.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.5 - Athletic (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Athletic (4.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • EH -2 - Real (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 - Real (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.75 - Real (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Real (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Athletic (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (60 of 70 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 77.51%93.91%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Real (votes: 18 - 78.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Real is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Navarro R. (Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Red Card) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams I. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:27. (average 0.6:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.6:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid were as follows:
    20.04.2025 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0
    04.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 2:1
    31.03.2024 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 2:0
    12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 0:2
    04.06.2023 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    30.11.2025 Girona - Real Madrid 1:1
    23.11.2025 Elche - Real Madrid 2:2
    04.11.2025 Liverpool - Real Madrid 1:0
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barcelona20161354:223249
    2Real Madrid20153243:172648
    3Villarreal19132437:191841
    4Atl. Madrid20125335:171841
    5Espanyol20104623:22134
    6Betis2088433:25832
    7Celta Vigo2088428:20832
    8Elche2059627:26124
    9Real Sociedad2066826:28-224
    10Ath Bilbao20731019:28-924
    11Girona2066820:34-1424
    12Osasuna20641021:24-322
    13Rayo Vallecano2057816:25-922
    14Sevilla20631126:32-621
    15Mallorca2056924:30-621
    16Getafe20631115:26-1121
    17Valencia2048819:31-1220
    18Alaves20541116:25-919
    19Levante19351121:32-1114
    20Oviedo20271111:31-2013

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2