Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

03/12/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao).

LaLiga - Round 19
Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Tolo TV
Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.87	2.04
Ball Possession
38%	62%
Total shots
9	13
Shots on target
4	8
Big Chances
2	6
Corner Kicks
5	7
Passes
79% (297/376)	89% (570/642)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.87	2.04
xG on target (xGOT)
1.22	3.17
Total shots
9	13
Shots on target
4	8
Shots off target
4	4
Blocked Shots
1	1
Shots inside the Box
7	5
Shots outside the Box
2	8
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	6
Corner Kicks
5	7
Touches in opposition box
20	24
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
4	15
Passes
79% (297/376)	89% (570/642)
Long passes
36% (13/36)	55% (33/60)
Passes in final third
68% (92/135)	79% (99/125)
Crosses
14% (3/21)	27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.80	1.60
Throw-ins
21	17
Fouls
15	4
Tackles
46% (6/13)	67% (16/24)
Duels won
32	66
Clearances
19	36
Interceptions
15	8
Errors leading to shot
3	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
5	4
xGOT faced
3.17	1.22
Goals prevented
0.17	1.22

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
42', 0 - 2, Camavinga E. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lekue I. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
46', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
55', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Asencio R. ↑,
59', 0 - 3, Mbappe K. ⚽, Carreras A. (A),
66', Berenguer A. 🟨,
69', Berenguer A. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
69', Jauregizar M. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
69', Camavinga E. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
76', Rego A. 🟨,
78', Eder Militao ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
78', Mbappe K. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
78', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
78', Williams N. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,

Chances of winning

Athletic Bilbao
20.5%

Draw
23.5%

Real Madrid
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

24.4%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

24.2%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3%)

Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.71 ↑ (4.12)	4.07 ↑ (3.9)	1.72 ↓ (1.81)	4.1% (5.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.5 - Athletic (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Athletic (4.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Real (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Real (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.75 - Real (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Real (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Athletic (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (60 of 70 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.51% – 93.91%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (31 of 33 users predict this - 93.94%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 42 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 6 - 14.3%). Real (votes: 36 - 85.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.
In this match, Real is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Navarro R. (Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Red Card) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams I. (Groin Injury)
There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:27. (average 0.6:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.6:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Real Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid won against Athletic Bilbao?

Real Madrid has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid were as follows:

20.04.2025 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0

04.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 2:1

31.03.2024 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 2:0

12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 0:2

04.06.2023 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:1

Latest results of Athletic Bilbao

29.11.2025 Levante - Athletic Bilbao 0:2 ✺

25.11.2025 Slavia Prague - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

22.11.2025 Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao 4:0 ✺

09.11.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Real Oviedo 1:0 ✺

05.11.2025 Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Real Madrid

30.11.2025 Girona - Real Madrid 1:1 ✺

26.11.2025 Olympiacos Piraeus - Real Madrid 3:4 ✺

23.11.2025 Elche - Real Madrid 2:2 ✺

09.11.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 0:0 ✺

04.11.2025 Liverpool - Real Madrid 1:0 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Barcelona	26	21	1	4	71:26	45	64
2	Real Madrid	26	19	3	4	54:22	32	60
3	Atl. Madrid	26	15	6	5	43:23	20	51
4	Villarreal	26	16	3	7	48:31	17	51
5	Betis	26	11	10	5	42:32	10	43
6	Celta Vigo	26	10	10	6	36:28	8	40
7	Espanyol	26	10	6	10	33:39	-6	36
8	Real Sociedad	26	9	8	9	38:38	0	35
9	Ath Bilbao	26	10	5	11	30:36	-6	35
10	Osasuna	26	9	6	11	30:30	0	33
11	Getafe	26	9	5	12	21:29	-8	32
12	Sevilla	26	8	6	12	34:41	-7	30
13	Girona	26	7	9	10	27:42	-15	30
14	Valencia	26	7	8	11	27:39	-12	29
15	Rayo Vallecano	25	6	9	10	23:32	-9	27
16	Alaves	26	7	6	13	23:34	-11	27
17	Elche	26	5	11	10	34:39	-5	26
18	Mallorca	26	6	6	14	29:42	-13	24
19	Levante	26	5	6	15	28:44	-16	21
20	Oviedo	25	3	8	14	16:40	-24	17

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2