Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

20/04/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid).

: LaLiga - Round 32
Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.73	0.19
Ball Possession
74%	26%
Total shots
22	3
Shots on target
7	1
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
14	1
Passes
91% (602/660)	70% (167/238)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73	0.19
xG on target (xGOT)
1.29	0.02
Total shots
22	3
Shots on target
7	1
Shots off target
8	2
Blocked Shots
7	0
Shots inside the Box
15	2
Shots outside the Box
7	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
14	1
Touches in opposition box
39	7
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
15	7
Passes
91% (602/660)	70% (167/238)
Long passes
71% (34/48)	29% (14/48)
Passes in final third
85% (188/222)	52% (38/73)
Crosses
21% (6/29)	13% (1/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.60	0.19
Fouls
7	15
Tackles
80% (12/15)	86% (19/22)
Duels won
53	43
Clearances Total
15	38
Interceptions
6	11
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	6
xGOT faced
0.02	1.29
Goals prevented
0.02	0.29

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Ceballos D. ↓, Endrick ↑,
62', Berenguer A. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
62', Djalo A. ↓, Williams I. ↑,
62', Guruzeta G. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
63', Nunez U. 🟨,
72', Gomez U. ↓, Lekue I. ↑,
75', Asencio R. 🟨,
78', Modric L. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
78', Rodrygo ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
83', Asencio R. ↓, Lucas ↑,
86', Prados Diaz B. 🟨,
87', Boiro A. ↓, Vivian D. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Valverde F. ⚽,

Chances of winning

Real Madrid
64.7%

Draw
21.6%

Athletic Bilbao
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

23%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

23.8%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.65)	4.47 ↑ (4.16)	6.93 ↑ (5.06)	3.5% (4.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fubo (for US customers)

Network on : ESPN Deportes

What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Real (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Athletic (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (54 of 66 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.52% – 91.12%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Real won 3.
Real is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Athletic is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Athletic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Real is a favorite.
There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Mbappe K. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury)
There will not play in Athletic: Williams N. (Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Athletic: Berchiche Y. (Calf Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Real won 12 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 28:12 (average 1.4:0.6).
Including matches at home between the teams Real won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:6 (average 1.6:0.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid won against Athletic Bilbao?

Real Madrid has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Real Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao were as follows:

04.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 2:1

31.03.2024 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 2:0

12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 0:2

04.06.2023 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:1

22.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 0:2

Latest results of Real Madrid

16.04.2025 Real Madrid - Arsenal 1:2 ✺

13.04.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺

08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Real Madrid - Valencia 1:2 ✺

01.04.2025 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:4 ✺

Latest results of Athletic Bilbao

17.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers 2:0 ✺

13.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano 3:1 ✺

10.04.2025 Glasgow Rangers - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

06.04.2025 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

30.03.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna 0:0 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Elche	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Atl. Madrid	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Mallorca	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Ath Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Betis	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Levante	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Girona	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	R. Oviedo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2

Which TV channels are streaming of Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV
Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	K-Sport 1, SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sport La Liga
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN 2, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World, JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Maldives	ICE Plus, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 4
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga TV 2, M+ LaLiga TV, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22, SCTV Online
World	Disney+