Athletic Bilbao vs Villarreal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish LaLiga
Result
1:2
12/04/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga - Round 31
  • Referee: Guzman J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.201.29
Ball possession
61%39%
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
66
Big chances
12
Corner kicks
153
Passes
86% (476/555)76% (288/378)
Yellow cards
23
Expected goals (xG)
1.201.29
xG on target (xGOT)
2.630.86
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
66
Shots off target
43
Blocked shots
83
Shots inside the box
910
Shots outside the box
92
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
12
Corner kicks
153
Touches in opposition box
3415
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free kicks
815
Passes
86% (476/555)76% (288/378)
Long passes
43% (17/40)29% (14/48)
Passes in final third
74% (142/192)77% (61/79)
Crosses
17% (8/48)60% (3/5)
Expected assists (xA)
1.870.52
Throw ins
219
Fouls
158
Tackles
79% (11/14)70% (14/20)
Duels won
4351
Clearances
1153
Interceptions
1111
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper saves
55
xGOT faced
0.862.63
Goals prevented
-1.141.63

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 19', Navarro P. 🟨,
  • 26', 0 - 1, Cardona S. ⚽, Oluwaseyi T. (A),
  • 45+5', 0 - 2, Gonzalez A. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Lekue I. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
  • 46', Navarro P. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
  • 66', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
  • 66', Sancet O. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
  • 66', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
  • 68', Gonzalez A. ↓, Pepe N. ↑,
  • 69', Oluwaseyi T. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
  • 75', Comesana S. 🟨,
  • 78', Buchanan T. 🟨,
  • 78', Buchanan T. ↓, Moleiro A. ↑,
  • 82', Williams I. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
  • 82', Gueye P. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
  • 84', 1 - 2, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Berchiche Y. (A),
  • 90+1', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Guruzeta G. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Athletic Bilbao
46.4%		Draw
27.5%		Villarreal
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.4% 26.7% 32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3% 28% 31.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao's performance.
  • Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villarreal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villarreal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.07 ↓
    (2.34)    		 3.46 ↓
    (3.53)    		 3.64 ↑
    (2.86)    		 4.7%
    (6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal?
  • Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 22 - 61.1%). Villarreal will win (votes: 4 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 27.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 45.2% – 77%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Villarreal (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Athletic (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 2 - 50%). Villarreal (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.
    • Recent form of Athletic has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Villarreal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Athletic: Areso J. (Inactive) Egiluz U. (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Partey T. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal were as follows:
    27.09.2025 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0
    06.04.2025 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    08.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 2:0
    14.04.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 1:1
    05.11.2023 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 2:3
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    05.04.2026 Getafe - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    22.03.2026 Athletic Bilbao - Betis 2:1 ✺
    14.03.2026 Girona - Athletic Bilbao 3:0 ✺
    07.03.2026 Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona 0:1 ✺
    04.03.2026 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Villarreal
    06.04.2026 Girona - Villarreal 1:0 ✺
    20.03.2026 Villarreal - Real Sociedad 3:1 ✺
    13.03.2026 Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal 1:1 ✺
    08.03.2026 Villarreal - Elche 2:1 ✺
    28.02.2026 Barcelona - Villarreal 4:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barcelona ✔ 33281487:305785
    2Real Madrid ✔ 33235568:313774
    3Villarreal33205859:382165
    4Atl. Madrid33186956:371960
    5Betis331214749:41850
    6Getafe331351528:34-644
    7Celta Vigo3311111145:43244
    8Real Sociedad3311101252:52043
    9Osasuna331191339:40-142
    10Ath Bilbao331251636:48-1241
    11Rayo Vallecano339121233:41-839
    12Valencia331091437:48-1139
    13Espanyol331091437:49-1239
    14Elche339111344:50-638
    15Girona339111336:50-1438
    16Alaves33991538:49-1136
    17Mallorca33981641:51-1035
    18Sevilla33971740:55-1534
    19Levante33891637:50-1333
    20Oviedo336101726:51-2528

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Barcelona is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
    Real Madrid is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
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