Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Basketball WNBA Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream
Result
66:74
10/08/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WNBA

Match Stats

Field Goals Attempted
6965
Field Goals Made
2425
Field Goals %
34.8%38.5%
2-Point Field G. Attempted
4633
2-Point Field Goals Made
1816
2-Point Field Goals %
39.1%48.5%
3-Point Field G. Attempted
2332
3-Point Field Goals Made
69
3-Point Field Goals %
26.1%28.1%
Free Throws Attempted
1419
Free Throws Made
1215
Free Throws %
85.7%78.9%
Offensive Rebounds
99
Defensive Rebounds
2529
Total Rebounds
3438
Assists
1620
Blocks
36
Turnovers
1210
Steals
611
Personal Fouls
1915

Chances of winning


Phoenix Mercury
56.9%
Atlanta Dream
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60% 40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9% 40.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Phoenix Mercury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)
  • Atlanta Dream has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Mercury than the current prediction. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlanta Dream than the current prediction. (-3%)
  • Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.7
    (1.56)

    2.23
    (2.34)
    3.7%
    (6.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 166.00
  • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
  • What is the prediction for Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream?
  • Users Predictions: Atlanta Dream will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 86.13%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Atlanta Dream will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 85:81.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ WNBA (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ WNBA (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Phoenix won 2.
    • Phoenix has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Atlanta is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Atlanta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Phoenix might have a minor edge in this game.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Phoenix won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1545:1555. (average 77.3:77.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Phoenix won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 827:777. (average 82.7:77.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream were as follows:
    01.08.2025 Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury 96:72
    23.07.2025 Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream 79:90
    03.09.2024 Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream 74:66
    23.08.2024 Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury 80:82
    21.08.2024 Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury 72:63
    Latest results of Phoenix Mercury
    Latest results of Atlanta Dream
    WNBA Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWLPCT
    1Minnesota Lynx W393183382:29970.795
    2Las Vegas Aces W4026143308:32630.650
    3Phoenix Mercury W3925143240:31050.641
    4Seattle Storm W4122193379:32760.537
    5Golden State Valkyries W3820182997:29340.526
    6Los Angeles Sparks W3717203183:32660.459
    7Dallas Wings W409313269:35240.225


    Eastern Conference
    PlWLPCT
    1Atlanta Dream W3925143254:30080.641
    2New York Liberty W4024163405:32400.600
    3Indiana Fever W3921183318:32120.538
    4Washington Mystics W4016243116:32640.400
    5Connecticut Sun W3910292976:33420.256
    6Chicago Sky W399302957:33530.231


    Overall Standings
    PlWLPCT
    1Minnesota Lynx W393183382:29970.795
    2Las Vegas Aces W4026143308:32630.650
    3Atlanta Dream W3925143254:30080.641
    4Phoenix Mercury W3925143240:31050.641
    5New York Liberty W4024163405:32400.600
    6Indiana Fever W3921183318:32120.538
    7Seattle Storm W4122193379:32760.537
    8Golden State Valkyries W3820182997:29340.526
    9Los Angeles Sparks W3717203183:32660.459
    10Washington Mystics W4016243116:32640.400
    11Connecticut Sun W3910292976:33420.256
    12Chicago Sky W399302957:33530.231
    13Dallas Wings W409313269:35240.225

          Promotion ~ WNBA (Play Offs: )